The Michigan State Spartans and Penn State Nittany Lions will square off in the regular season finale in Week 13. The Spartans dominated the Lions last year, 55-16, but Michigan State was a much different team, making it to the College Football Playoffs. This year, Penn State is the superior team and will host a Spartans team with just three wins.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State +12.5
Penn State -12.5
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
Up a point from the 11.5-point opening line, the Nittany Lions are the heavy favorites at home given their impressive run since a mediocre 2-2 start.
After the loss to Michigan to close out September, Penn State has been undefeated, including wins over Ohio State and Iowa. The Nittany Lions have now won seven in a row and covered the spread in six straight. Most recently, they toppled Rutgers 39-0 after heading into the action as 25-point favorites.
Conversely, it’s been a rough season for the Spartans who had a shutout win over Rutgers themselves the week prior to Penn State, but otherwise have dropped their other eight games since the middle of September.
On the year, Michigan State has covered the spread four times, but three of those four were as the underdog.
Matchup to Watch
Defensive lineman Malik McDowell is questionable after sitting out last week with an ankle injury.
If he’s out, that opens the door even wider for Saquon Barkley to run on through. Michigan State’s line is already beatable even with McDowell providing strength.
Barkley rushed for over 100 yards last year in the Penn State loss to the Spartans and should be in for another strong game. He left last week’s game as a precaution, but should be good to go.
Barkley has scored a touchdown in four straight games with six scores in that time. He’s also got a couple 200-yard games under his belt. Look for Penn State to amass an early lead and let the conference’s leading rusher take care of the rest.
Having Barkley performing on the ground eases pressure off of Trace McSorley who is a good player in his own right when not being asked to do too much.
He’s been very good at avoiding interceptions with just five picks thrown compared to 17 touchdowns.
The Penn State offense is very strong and while the Spartan defense has put up above average numbers in scoring and yard defense, Michigan State had given up 30 or more to the likes of Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern and Brigham Young. With Maryland coming just two points shy of that, Penn State could certainly join the list of big scorers against Michigan State.
Letdown Spot
What to expect from this game could very well hinge on the outcome of another Big Ten game.
The Nittany Lions are still in the mix for the East division title and a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game for the first time ever, but in order to get there, they need to beat Michigan State, but they also need Ohio State to top Michigan in one of the sports’ early games.
If the Buckeyes are victorious, that could spark the Lions, but if the Wolverines get the victory, there could be a letdown.
Of course, the Nittany Lions should be motivated either way as they’re still in position of an excellent bowl game, but the chance for the conference title would be that little bit extra to push them more.
Free ATS Pick
The Nittany Lions have won seven in a row and covered six straight. There’s no real reason to expect anything else in the regular season finale as the Nittany Lions should be able to top the Spartans by a couple touchdowns on Saturday.
Look for Barkley to have a big game and Michigan State to struggle to stop him. In the second half, he runs away with this game.
Penn State have the advantage on offense, on defense and on special teams. For Michigan State, Scott is the lone major threat and he can only do so much on his own.
College Football Odds: Penn State 34, Michigan State 17
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