The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers battle it out in Week 13 with the Big Ten Conference West Division still in play. Minnesota has the advantage in the all-time series by a game, but it’s been the Badgers who’ve dominated the series of late, winning the last 12 meetings.
This matchup in Week 13 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota +15
Wisconsin -15
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The Badgers opened as two touchdown favorites and the spread has since grown in favor of a Wisconsin team that’s covered two consecutive spreads north of three touchdowns. Along with the spread, the total has also jumped from the opening figure of 42.5.
The trends skew this heavily in Wisconsin’s favor. The Badgers have only failed to cover the spread twice: a 35.5-point spread against Georgia State and a nine point spread against Nebraska.
Matchup to Watch
The Badgers defense is amongst the best in college football, ranking fifth in scoring, allowing just 13.4 points per game and eighth in yards allowed. The team stuff’s the opposing ground game almost regardless of the team while the secondary does a more than adequate job containing the passing attack.
It’s a pretty safe assumption that the Gophers won’t be able to amass a major threat on offense, but can Wisconsin score enough on defense to mount a lead greater than a couple touchdowns?
Overall, Wisconsin is average at best on offense. Their 28.3 points per game ranks No. 73 in college football while their passing game has barely been able to amass more than 182 yards per game.
The rushing attack has been the key to this offense and has driven a huge offensive outburst the last two weeks with 48-points against Illinois and 49 against Purdue.
Corey Clement has been very good in those last two games with 235 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He’s now rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games and five of the team’s last six games.
Minnesota’s defense will be asked to stop Clement and that’ll be a key matchup to determine how this game ends. The Gophers have a strong defensive line and are a very good team against the run.
Player to Watch
While Clement holds the key to the Badgers’ ability to score enough to cover the spread, it’s Rodney Smith that sets the pace for Minnesota’s offense.
Mitch Leidner is decent under center, but he’s not a prolific passer and he’s not the center of the Gopher offense. He’s thrown eight interceptions with just six touchdown passes while Smith has rushed for 15 scores and has amassed 1,039 rushing yards on 210 carries.
Smith needs to find a way to break through against a very tough Wisconsin defense. If he cannot move the ball efficiently, that forces the Gophers to throw the ball and leaves Leidner exposed.
If Minnesota goes to the air often that could lead to this game being broken wide open for Wisconsin. If Leidner is over exposed he will get picked off. The Badgers have notched 17 interceptions on defense.
A significant part of Minnesota’s success on the season has been their ability to play clean, efficient football. That’s led to a turnover margin of 11. Winning the turnover battle is crucial to this team’s success, particularly against a far more talented team in terms of personnel and name recognition.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers’ defense should provide fits for Leidner who leads a below average passing attack. Wisconsin’s elite defense should also stuff Smith, keeping the Golden Gophers to a couple touchdowns at best. Look for a couple picks off of Leidner as Minnesota is forced to throw the ball as the game progresses.
On the other side, bank on those key turnovers by the defense putting Clement and the rest of the offense in excellent positon to mount a several position lead. Clement rules the day in this one on the offensive end of the ball, running efficiently enough against Minnesota to allow Wisconsin to cruise to victory.
Give the points and back on a big win by the home team even with the spread bumping up over a pair of touchdowns.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 36, Minnesota 14
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