In a battle for supremacy in The Magnolia State, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will matchup against the Mississippi Rebels in a Week 13 throw down. Ole Miss plays host this time around looking for their third straight victory in this head-to-head battle. A win for the Rebels would make them bowl eligible in an otherwise disappointing campaign.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +7.5
Ole Miss -7.5
Over/Under 69
Odds Analysis
Bettors and odds makers are in line with this contest with very little movement on either the spread or the total since both opened earlier this week.
It’s been a difficult season for both Mississippi State and Ole Miss and neither has been a particularly safe bet. The Bulldogs have covered just two of their last eight games while the Rebels have covered just once in their last six.
With neither team playing well nor delivering ATS, we’re brought back to historical matchups for guidance. Ole Miss has won the last two meetings and covered three of the last four ATS, but over a few more years, it’s the Bulldogs with the advantage ATS, covering four of their last seven against the Rebels.
Matchup to Watch
The Rebels turned to freshman Shea Patterson in last week’s loss to Vanderbilt and he played well, throwing for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also avoided throwing a pick, but got no support from the running game or the defense.
So far in two games, Patterson has amassed 560 yards and four touchdowns. His completion percentage isn’t as strong as Chad Kelly’s, but he’s been a more than capable fill in to this point and another strong game from him will be crucial to an Ole Miss offense that is only getting 144.5 yards per game on the ground.
He has a pretty favorable matchup in what will be only his third ever college game. Mississippi State has a poor secondary and a weak pass rush, allowing 279.7 passing yards per game. That’s a big part of the team’s 34.3 points per game allowed.
The Bulldogs are coming off a performance where they allowed 661 yards or total offense against Arkansas in a game the Razorbacks dominated.
While the Mississippi State’s defense has struggled against the pass, the offense is driven by the aerial attack. In the loss to Arkansas, Nick Fitzgerald threw four six touchdowns and tallied 459 yards. Just as the Bulldogs need to contain the Rebels in the air, Ole Miss will have to concentrate heavy on defending Fitzgerald, essentially forcing Mississippi State to beat them on the ground.
Last Meeting
Last year we saw a higher scoring affair focused on two quality quarterbacks, but Chad Kelly is on the shelf with a torn ACL after another solid season while Dak Prescott is making headlines for the Dallas Cowboys.
Even with those two QBs out of the picture, this matchup once again figures to be about the men under center, but with very different storylines.
Neither defense is equipped to handle a strong passing game nor is either offense built to win on the ground. It’s do or die in the air.
While last year, the same was true, Mississippi did get 243 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns while gaining 6.6 yards per carry. That’s none too shabby. Though, of the four players to carry the ball, Akeem Judd is the only one playing on Saturday and he had just four touches in that game, though he did turn that into 24 yards.
Free ATS Pick
Fitzgerald is a legitimate threat. He’s a beast in the air as he showed in Week 12 and he’s the team’s leading rusher to boot. That makes it seemingly an easy game plan for Ole Miss: stop Fitzgerald, but is it really that easy for a Rebels’ defense that’s, well, lackluster at best?
The Mississippi State QB will get his yards and his scores and that alone should make you leery of backing the Rebels. Still, Ole Miss does have a few more weapons available and that—along with home field—is likely the difference in this game straight up.
Still, these teams are pretty evenly matched, which is not a glowing statement on either squad. Ole Miss is the one with something left to play for so take them to win, but with the spread over a touchdown, take the points ATS.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss 32, Mississippi State 28
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