This is a big game for the SMU Mustangs, who are looking to become bowl eligible this week. The Navy Midshipmen, on the other hand, are 8-2 on the season and have clinched the West Division title and secured a spot in the AAC title game with a 6-1 conference record heading into this Week 13 showdown.
A win here could help Navy host the AAC championship game, so it has plenty to play for. SMU is 5-6 on the season and looking for that critical sixth win, so the motivation will be high on both sides. Navy will be a solid favorite despite hitting the road for this showdown.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy -7
SMU +7
Over/Under 70
Odds Analysis
Navy must win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread, and that’s not an easy task, but 73 percent of the early action is coming in on it to do so. Both teams have had a tendency to get into shootouts and even with a high scoring total more than 70 percent of the money has chosen the “over” in this matchup.
Navy is 6-4 against the spread this season and 3-3 as the favorite. The Midshipmen have played on the road four times and have covered in two of those matchups.
Southern Methodist is 8-3 against the spread, either winning outright or keeping games close when not much is expected of them. The Mustangs have been the underdog in nine games and have covered in six of them, so this is not foreign territory. SMU is 3-2 against the spread in home games this year.
Player to Watch
Will Worth – The Navy quarterback is the motor behind the Midshipmen offense this year. He has thrown for 1,259 yards and rushed for another 1,047 yards this season with 29 total touchdowns.
Worth has struggled with accuracy at times, completing 66 of 108 passes that also included seven interceptions but his mobility helps to make it for it. Last week in Navy’s 66-13 over East Carolina, he had 28 carries for 159 yards and four touchdowns.
Navy prefers a ground attack and the key to that is a mobile quarterback, and Worth has been the catalyst behind an impressive offensive season in which the team has averaged 38.4 points per game.
Key Stat
108. That’s how many points Navy has scored in the past two games. The offense has accumulated 1,094 yards in that pair of wins over Tulsa and East Carolina.
Worth scored eight touchdowns those wins, but was aided on the ground by running backs Dishan Romine, Toneo Gulley and Shawn White. The Midshipmen have relied heavily on the rushing attack this year, averaging 326.6 yards a game which ranks third in the nation.
SMU has given up 32.7 points per game this season so it would be little surprise to see Navy once again find some success offensively.
Free ATS Pick
SMU has outplayed expectations all season and it would be a boon for this program to make a bowl game. This one is at home and the crowd will help, but it’s up to the Mustangs’ defense to play well enough to keep this one within reach.
SMU’s offense has done a nice job, averaging more than 27 points per game. Running back Braeden West should surpass 1,000 yards rushing in this game, but quarterback Ben Hicks needs to do a better job of taking care of the ball.
SMU has done a nice job this season, but this isn’t a great matchup. Navy should be able to run the ball at will, which will lead to a win and covering the spread.
College Football Odds: Navy 42, SMU 31
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