The North Carolina State Wolfpack will wrap up their schedule on Friday in Week 13 action against their in-state rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels. This is certainly a tail of two very different teams with the Wolfpack struggling in conference play while the Tar Heels have had more success, including upset wins on the road against Florida State and Miami.
This contest in Week 13 of the regular season will go down Friday, November 25, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina State +10
North Carolina -10
Over/Under
Odds Analysis
Save for a victory over Syracuse in Week 11, the Wolfpack have otherwise lost their last five games. In that dismal six game stretch, NC State has been able to cover the spread three times, but weren’t able to do so against a disappointing Hurricanes’ team last week.
On the flip side, the Tar Heels are fresh off a 41-7 win over The Citadel, covering the 23-point spread. It was the third time the team was able to cover in their last four games, all as double-digit favorites.
Matchup to Watch
Defensively, the Wolfpack has had a pretty good season, ranking No. 37 in the nation with just 23.5 points allowed per game and fairing even better in total yardage, ranking No. 25.
It’s that defense that gives NC State a chance to cover the spread on Friday. Offensively, the team’s struggled to mount any sort of consistent attack, particularly on the ground.
Given that, the key to this game will be how well the North Carolina offense is able to fair against the Wolfpack’s stout defense.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 35-points in three of its last four games and have at least that many points in seven of their 11 showdowns on the year. Overall, they’re averaging 34.2 points per game as one of the ACC’s better offensive units.
North Carolina doesn’t match up well against State on the ground so don’t look for too big of a game from Elijah Hood. Still, this offense is more about the pass anyway and Hood should be able to at least do enough to prevent the defense from selling out against the run.
Against the pass, the Wolfpack isn’t nearly as strong. NC State is ranked No. 8 against the run, but falls back to No. 89 against the pass, at least according to yards allowed.
With that, look for Mitch Trubisky to shoulder the load and connect with Ryan Switzer several times to move the chains, potentially adding a big pass to Bug Howard. If the Tar Heels exploit the NC State secondary like the team should be able to do based on the stats and how each team is playing heading into this showdown, this could be an easy cover for the Tar Heels.
Last Meeting
UNC beat NC State in a shootout last year, winning 45-34. If this year’s game ends in a high scoring battle, take the Tar Heels to win handily as they have the superior offense.
Over the last three years, however, it’s the road team that’s been victorious both SU and ATS, but the last home team to win the series between these two programs was the Tar Heels back in 2012.
In last year’s game, surprisingly enough, it was the running for UNC that got them the win. Both Hood and T.J. Logan rushed for a pair of touchdowns with Hood getting his scores along with 220 yards on 21 carries. Logan only touched the ball six times, but came away with a couple huge runs, totaling 100 yards.
In total, the Tar Heels outrushed the Wolfpack on 11 fewer carries, notching an impressive 9.1 yards per carry.
If Hood, or Logan, or worse: both, managed to replicate their success this year, it could be a very long game for NC State as their defense against the run has been one of their biggest strengths of the season.
Free ATS Pick
The Tar Heels get the win at home, breaking the streak of three straight road wins in this battle for the state’s bragging rights. As long as the spread is reasonable, look for the Tar Heels to cover, too.
We’ve already seen their top two rushers take care of business against the Wolfpack and the matchup against the NC State secondary favors the UNC offense, too. Bank on the Tar Heels racking up the point as the Wolfpack fail to move the ball consistently enough behind Ryan Finley and Matt Dayes.
College Football Odds: North Carolina 35, North Carolina State 21
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
