The rivalry continues for the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers in Week 13 of the 2016 college football schedule as these two teams meet for the 120th team in their histories. The Civil War between these has gone to the Ducks in eight straight meetings and Oregon has been victorious in 63 matchups dating back to the inaugural showdown in 1894. The Beavers are unlikely to overcome history, once again entering the contest as underdogs.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 4 p.m. ET at Reser Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon -3
Oregon State +3
Over/Under 71.5
Odds Analysis
The spread has shrunk to a field goal after opening a half point higher at the beginning of the week. That’s a pretty shallow spread even with the Beavers hosting as the Ducks. Last season, Oregon was favored by nearly seven touchdowns, albeit at home.
The Ducks aren’t the same team this year, however. They’re just 4-7 to the Beavers’ 3-8 mark. Oregon has been an even worse team for bettors, covering just two of their 11 games while Oregon State is a very strong 8-3 ATS.
Last Meeting
A season ago, the Ducks hosted the Beavers as a much different team, an elite in the Pac-12, but Oregon State held strong against the superior team.
In the contest, Ryan Nall ran all over the Ducks’ defense, gaining 174 yards on 19 carries and he, along with Seth Collins and Marcus McMaryion combined to rush for five touchdowns.
McMaryion added to that with a solid game throwing the ball. Although he did toss an interception, he was able to move the ball down the field with a few key passes, completing 11 throws for 154 yards.
Both McMaryion and Nall are back and the Beavers will to Nall to shoulder the load.
Meanwhile, for the Ducks, it was Vernon Adams Jr. who threw for 366 yards and three scores while Royce Freeman had a pair of touchdowns and 167 rushing yards.
In Saturday’s matchup, Adams gives way to true-freshman Justin Herbert who was the difference in impressive upset victory over Utah on the road last week.
All told, offense isn’t the issue for Oregon as they’re averaging over 500 yards per game and 36.5 points per contest. Defensively, meanwhile, this team is one of the worst in the sport, but can Oregon State take advantage like they were able to last year?
Player to Watch
Hebert has been a solid option under center, but he’s still young and prone to make mistakes. The players to keep an eye on in this contest are Freeman and Tony Brooks-James.
This game will be won or lost on the ground. Neither team has a good rush defense, but when it comes to matching this tandem up with Nall, the tandem come out on top.
Freeman and Brooks-James are combining for 1,540 yards and 17 scores. Freeman has led the way in carries between the two and took the lead in yardage with more than 100 yards each of the last two games. Brooks-James, meanwhile, is averaging two yards per carry more than his counterpart.
This could be a close, back-and-forth affair with the pair of rushers likely to outlast Nall and the rest of the Beavers running game.
Free ATS Pick
Oregon State just doesn’t have the firepower to matchup with the Ducks. The poor Oregon defense will allow the Beavers to hang close, but ultimately, I’m going with the superior offense. It also doesn’t hurt that Garrett Owens has missed seven field goals for the Beavers and in a game that could be close, the difference on special teams is huge.
The Ducks have had a bad year, but they’re coming off a big, upset win over Utah that gives them plenty of momentum and there’s no doubt back-to-back wins to end the year would be a huge boast to this program after such a rough year.
In the end, Oregon State’s only advantage is on the defensive end and that’s basically be default as the Ducks are ranked No. 126 in scoring defense so it’s hard to be much worse. Still, the Ducks overcome the weakness on the offensive side as Herbert has another huge performance with a couple touchdown passes.
College Football Odds: Oregon 41, Oregon State 34
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