This is the third straight week that the Indiana Hoosiers will try and become bowl-eligible and while the first two attempts weren’t fruitful, there is no reason Indiana shouldn’t easily topple the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 13. The only real question here is can they win by enough to cover a spread that’s nearly three touchdowns wide?
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Purdue +20.5
Indiana -20.5
Over/Under 62.5
Odds Analysis
The spread opened low in support of the Indiana and if you were able to jump on that depressed spread before it jump, congratulations. For those yet to play on this one, even with an increased spread, Indiana has a nice matchup.
The Hoosiers haven’t had a great year, but the Boilermakers have lost six straight games, dropping their last two to Northwestern and Wisconsin by a combined 54-points. Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off a strong showing—albeit in a loss—at Michigan, keeping the game close, but ultimately falling 20-10.
Player to Watch
Devine Redding is the obvious key to beating the Boilermakers and more importantly for our purposes, covering the spread. The passing game for Indiana ranks better in yardage than the rushing attack, but Purdue’s defense is pretty adept against the pass and Richard Lagow, while passing for 3,057 yards, hasn’t been the most efficient, throwing 13 interceptions.
Redding has been who Indiana has counted on time and time again to move the chains. His 951 yards and five touchdowns aren’t the sexiest numbers, but he’s been effective.
More importantly for this betting matchup, Redding goes against a truly abysmal Boilermaker defensive line that is like a sieve for rushing attacks. Purdue is allowing 246.4 rushing yards per game.
The matchup is there and the game plan is clear to even the most novice of bettors: Indiana will run the ball and force the Boilermakers to stop them. We know this and Purdue knows this, but Purdue isn’t equipped to stop it unless they shore up their run defense, but we’ve seen them fail to do so all season long; one week of practice will not change that.
Key Stat
Purdue cannot run so they pass and they pass often. That has led to a number of forced throws by the Boilermakers and 23 total interceptions allowed, 19 by David Blough. The starting quarterback has thrown three interceptions in each of the team’s last two games.
The Boilermakers are losing by more than two touchdowns on average and their terrible turnover margin is a big reason why. Purdue doesn’t have the firepower on offense to make up for those mistakes nor does the team possess a shutdown defense to compensate.
Purdue is the worst FBS team in turnover margin at a deficit of 18. That’s a staggering 30 turnovers lost to just 12 gained. That’s a story of a far-from-perfect offense and a weak defense; a poor combination.
Of course, Indiana isn’t amongst the most efficient offenses either. They give the ball up way too frequently, too, but with a turnover margin of -6, they’re still three times as good as the Boilermakers.
Free ATS Pick
Redding exploits the Boilermakers’ flawed defensive front and Lagow does his job to mount a respectable air attack to support Redding.
On the other side, the Boilermakers haven’t gotten anything on the ground this year and that shouldn’t change in the season finale. With Blough likely to surrender a few more interceptions, the game could get out of hand early.
In the end, it’s hard to give three touchdowns to a team that’s playing in conference and goes down to the wire to secure bowl eligibility, but they’re playing Purdue, they’re at home and they—unlike Purdue—at least have options. The Boilermakers cannot run, cannot stop the run and are turnover prone. That’s a bad combination no matter who you are playing.
Take Indiana and give the points, but if the spread continues to grow, there comes a point where you need to start being weary. For me, 20.5-points isn’t quite at that point, yet.
College Football Odds: Indiana 42, Purdue 18
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