Looking to keep themselves in the college title picture, the Clemson Tigers will be at home, hosting a much lesser South Carolina Gamecock team looking to make headlines in an otherwise mediocre season. The odds are stacked against South Carolina in Week 13, but the Gamecocks are playing well, winning four of their last five games.
This matchup in Week 13 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Carolina +24
Clemson -24
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
Both the spread and total have grown since the odds were released, each compensating for a killer Clemson offense.
The over has paid out in five of the Tigers’ last seven games while South Carolina’s poor offense has caused the under to pay in all but three games for the Gamecocks this season, though South Carolina did score 44 in a shootout victory against Western Carolina last week, easily topping the projected total single-handedly.
Against the spread, these two teams have similar marks with the Gamecocks 5-5-1 ATS and the Tigers 5-6. Clemson’s ATS mark looked much better at the midpoint of the year. Since the middle of October when expectations for this Tigers team began rising, the spread has been inflated in Clemson’s favor and they’ve managed to cover that inflated spread just once in five meetings.
Player to Watch
When Clemson is playing, the player to watch is always Deshaun Watson. The QB will be playing for Heisman consideration and for a College Football Playoff berth. The latter seems more certain the former, but both will be motivating factors.
Watson’s numbers are ridiculous though he’s actually taken a step back in the numbers from last year.
Still, the junior has thrown for 3,279 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for four more. His running numbers are down considerably though with Wayne Gallman’s resurgent season. Still, the QB’s legs have been a big part of his success. He’s shown the ability to extend plays by his ability to scramble and get keep the ball moving even when he’s out of the pocket.
South Carolina will need to try and find a way to keep Watson in the pocket and take away his running game, but that’s far easier said than done for South Carolina.
The Gamecocks have a very strong secondary, but it seems unlikely the defensive line can collapse the pocket around Watson enough to cause any real pressure.
Key Stat
The ability to keep the chains moving is what helps to make Watson such a special player.
Clemson is one of the best in third down situations, extending the play and converting a first down literally half of the time, that’s better than all but nine team in college football.
Watson’s ability to extend plays is a big part of this as is the team’s diverse offense that’s combined to be No. 18 in total yards per game.
For comparison, the Gamecocks are No. 114 in total yards and No. 119 in points per game, scoring just 20.4. As you would expect, they struggle converting third downs and extending drives. They’re converting just 34.8-percent of their chances into first downs.
When considering third down defenses, the gap between these teams gets even wider. Clemson’s stout defense is No. 6 on third downs with a .280 conversion rate. South Carolina, on the other hand, is just about the definition of average at .405.
Free ATS Pick
This game is all Clemson as Watson shows why he’s again in the Heisman discussion and the Tigers’ defense continues to dominate, shutting down South Carolina.
All Clemson needs to do in this game is play its style of football and the Gamecocks will be easily overmatched. In football, anything can happen, particularly in a rivalry game; but a win for the Tigers is seemingly in the bag. The question is by how much.
Look for the Tigers to cover the spread as South Carolina will need to take risks in a game where they’re such big underdogs and one of two things happens in that case: either the young Jake Bentley gets overwhelmed in the situation or, more likely, the Gamecocks opt out of taking those risks and instead cruise to a massive defeat.
College Football Odds: Clemson 38, South Carolina 13
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