The Tennessee Volunteers hit the road up to Nashville to face the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 13. The Vols have won the last two meetings and are the favorites again on Saturday, but this an in-state rivalry game featuring two SEC teams; anything could happen.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Vanderbilt Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee -7
Vanderbilt +7
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
The spread has dropped a point since opening and the total has climbed a point in junction.
Vanderbilt not only covered the spread in Week 12, they entered as 9.5-point pups and won straight out by 21-points. The win was the Commodores’ fifth in their last eight games. They’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games as the underdog like they are slated to be on Saturday.
Flipping the switch, Tennessee had a huge Week 12 against Missouri, winning 63-37. The Vols are 8-3 this year and are just behind Florida in the SEC East standings. Vanderbilt, having gone just 2-5 in conference is second to last, just one stop ahead of that same Missouri team.
Matchup to Watch
Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring just 21.5 points per game, the same number as the defense is giving up on average. It’s no wonder the Commodores are fighting for a .500 record.
The offense will have an opening if they can exploit it as Tennessee’s front seven rank No. 117 in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up 237.9 per game. That’s great news for Ralph Webb.
Webb is the key to the Vandy offense. He’s coming off a strong 120-yards, three touchdown game against Ole Miss and has had a handful of 100-yard games and multi-touchdown contests. The Commodores will need another one of those to keep this game close. If the Tennessee defense, on the other hand, can overcome their struggles and suppress what Webb is able to provide, the Vols should have success.
On the flip side, the running game for the Vols is also key. The Commodores have a pretty good defense. The defense seems to bend, but not break. It’ll be Joshua Dobb’s job to make it snap.
Dobbs has 33 total touchdowns, 24 in the air and nine on the ground as he’s the team’s leading rusher with 660 yards.
The QB has given up more interceptions than you typically like to see so watch out for that as one key pick can change the appearance of this contest, but provided he can keep that under wraps, in the end, look for a massive game from Dobbs. He’s a dual threat, giving the Vols enough of an advantage. Besides, unlike Vanderbilt that is even in points per game on both sides of the ball, the Tennessee offense has outscored the defense by 8.7 points per game.
Last Meeting
Tennessee was at home and favored by 18-points last season and the Volunteers delivered in epic fashion with a 53-28 victory.
Both Kyle Shurmur and Ralph Webb were part of that loss and each had okay numbers. For Shurmur, he amassed 209 yards and three touchdowns. Webb, on the other hand, rushed for 149 yards. While those are strong numbers, Vanderbilt still lost as Shumur failed to complete half of his passes and Webb was kept out of the end zone.
On the other side, Dobbs also had a multi-touchdown game. His yardage was lower, but he was more efficient going 13-for-21. Jalen Hurd carried the ball 19 times for 120 yards.
In total, the Vols won that game by playing a much cleaner game with fewer penalties and a 54-percent third down conversion rate.
Free ATS Pick
Dobbs has a big last hurrah in a key rivalry game and leads the Volunteers to a victory. Tennessee edges out Vandy on offense rather handily.
There’s a legitimate in-state rivalry between these teams and that always puts a wrinkle into things, but count on Dobbs to get the job done and look for the Vols to do their thing against Ralph Webb. The question for the Commodores is just how big of a game can Kyle Shurmur produce. In my estimation: not enough.
Take the Vols to cover the spread on the road in route to a lopsided victory and hand the Commodores a big loss.
College Football Odds: Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 21
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