P.J. Fleck is the name on the tongue of Athletic Directors across the country. Fleck has completely resurrected a moribund Western Michigan Broncos team since his arrival and has them on the precipice of an undefeated season and a potential spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Standing in their way in College Football Week 13 action are the Toledo Rockets. Toledo can not only upset the apple cart, but flip it over entirely, as a Rockets win would put them in the MAC Championship Game.
Kickoff for this college football Week 13 game is set for Friday, November 25, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at Waldo Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo +9
Western Michigan -9
Over/Under 67.5
Odds Analysis
The Rockets are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on the season but will face an unfamiliar role as an underdog in this one. Toledo has been an underdog just twice this season, but covered against both Arkansas State and BYU.
Western Michigan is going to keep rowing that boat for bettors. The Broncos are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS but have shined when favored by 10 points or less. In that situation, Western Michigan is 5-0 ATS on the season.
Last Year’s Meeting
Toledo is going to be looking for revenge in this game after the results of last year’s affair. The Rockets came into the game as 7-point favorites and just needed to win in order to win the MAC West and make the conference title game. However, the Broncos had other ideas.
Corey Davis caught two long touchdowns from Zach Terrell to help Western Michigan pull a close one out against Toledo. Even though the Rockets carried the ball for over 200 yards on the day it wasn’t enough in the end.
Matchup to Watch
These are two of the more prolific offenses in the country and many are expecting a shootout. The Rockets have averaged 536.5 yards of offense so far this season with Logan Woodside under center. Woodside has been phenomenal this season, throwing 40 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, and has explosive weapons on the outside. Toledo leads the nation in passes of 60 yards or more with 10 and that big play capability makes it extremely dangerous.
The Broncos are a lot more balanced than the Rockets are. Western Michigan has 2890 passing yards and 2708 rushing yards through two games and has been able to keep teams off guard by mixing passes and runs. Zach Terrell has been stingy with the ball in his hands, throwing just 1 interception in almost 300 pass attempts, and avoiding costly mistakes has been a big part of Western Michigan’s success.
Free ATS Pick
Those looking to bet the total may want to wait to see what the weather will do. Right now, it looks possible that there will be rain showers all day before kickoff and there is a possibility we could see sleet and snow as well. Those especially would play havoc with the total and are worth watching.
New Toledo coach Jason Candle has done a fantastic job in his first season replacing Matt Campbell and the offense is clicking better than it ever has. His schemes and play calling have played a major role in Woodside’s success and in a year or two he may be a target for a Power Five school looking for a new coach.
Despite Western Michigan’s trouncing of MAC foes this season, the line feels too high. Provided the weather holds, Toledo is going to be able to throw the football on Western Michigan and Candle will find a way to rip off big plays on this defense. Don’t be surprised if a dubious call or two gives Western Michigan an advantage in a close game with what’s at stake, but Toledo should play well enough to cover.
College Football Odds: Broncos 38, Rockets 35
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