The UCLA Bruins host the California Golden Bears in Week 13 for yet another iteration of this in-state rivalry. Heading into the weekend, UCLA has the distinct advantage in this series winning 20 more games than the Bears all-time, 52-32-1. More recently, it’s been the Bruins dominating California each of the last three years.
This contest in Week 13 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Kabam Field at California Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
UCLA -3
California +3
Over/Under 71.5
Odds Analysis
The spread has shrunk by a couple points since opening. Bettors have been slow to back the road team after the Bruins struggles. The huge loss against USC has left a bad taste in their mouth while just a single win in six games makes it hard to believe they can end up in the win column on Saturday even against the Golden Bears.
Of course, the Bears have done little to convince bettors they’re a better choice than UCLA, dropping four straight game SU and ATS. Both teams own identical 4-7 records both SU and ATS.
Matchup to Watch
This game should come down to a battle of quarterbacks as Mike Fafaul is under center for UCLA against California’s Davis Webb. That’s a much different showdown than these two teams had a season ago when Jared Goff and Josh Rosen matched up pass-for-pass, each collecting three touchdowns and completing over 30 passes.
We should see a similar percentage of plays in the air this year, but very different results as each team has taken a step back in this position.
Fafaul is the second string behind the injured Rosen and we’ve seen the reason for that. He’s barely completing half of his passes, though without a rushing attack he still gets plenty of chances to throw the ball. Under Rosen, this UCLA had expectations and was a completely different squad. With Fafaul in the most important position, this is a much different look team.
Matching up with Jordan Lasley twice for two scores last week helped lead Fafaul to a statistically solid game despite the loss to USC. While he threw a pair of touchdowns and didn’t allow a pick, he still completed just 15-of-31 passes for 181 yards.
Webb threw for 393 yards against the Stanford Cardinals with a pair of touchdowns of his own.
Webb leads a passing game ranked No. 3 in the nation as he throws early and often. If he gets off to a hot start, it could carry the Bears to an early lead and hefty victory.
Key Stat
The Bears defense is truly terrible and that opens the door for a UCLA team that’s been lost without their starting QB under center.
In their four game losing streak the Bears’ opponents have scored at least 45 in each. In fact, the opposition has scored at least 45 in six straight games and have scored fewer than 43 just one time all year long.
Part of the equation for the Bears on defense is their inability to secure the big stop. They’re allowing the opposition to convert on nearly half of their third down chances though UCLA could make it a bit easier for the California defense, converting little more than 36-percent of their own third down chances and even less than that under Fafaul.
Free ATS Pick
These are two balanced teams that cannot run the ball, each taking to the air early and often.
The UCLA defense seems better equipped to handle that based on the numbers, but turnovers have been a bigger problem from the Bruins than for the Bears.
Fafaul, in particularly, has struggled with the turnovers since taking over for Rosen. It’s no coincidence that the team went drastically downhill once he took over under center.
Given the non-existent run game to support him, Fafaul will still run up the yards out of necessity and could still throw for a couple scores against the weak California defense, but look for a couple big interceptions to turn the tide in this game as Webb will at least be cleaner with his throws.
Look for a close game and take the home team to pull this one out.
College Football Odds: California 42, UCLA 40
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