This is an interesting Pac-12 showdown set for Week 13 with two ranked teams meeting as the Colorado Buffaloes host the Utah Utes. The programs have been heading in opposite directions here at season’s end with Colorado in the midst of a five game winning streak and Utah having lost two of their last three.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Folsom Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Utah +10.5
Colorado -10.5
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
This is just the third time all season that Utah will enter a game as the underdog. The Utes covered the spread in both of those games, winning one of them outright.
That’s a nice little factoid, but the Colorado record ATS is far more impressive, even if Utah had covered three in a row their upset at the hands of Oregon in Week 12. The Buffaloes have only failed to cover the spread in one game all year long, covering on three separate and distinct occasions as the double-digit favorites.
Since becoming conference foes in 2011, the matchup of these two teams has been owned by Utah. The Utes have won each of the last four meetings, but it’s Colorado who has the monopoly ATS. The Buffaloes have covered all five times these schools have faced each other.
Player to Watch
You can beat the Utah defense with strong performances either in the air or on the ground. Or, if you have the unique combination of talent and experience that Sefo Liufau possesses, you can single-handedly do both.
Fresh off a 345 passing yard game against Wazzu, Liufau was able to keep the ball moving in the air and then added 108 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
The Colorado offense is a truly balanced attack sitting significantly above average both in the air and on the ground and Liufau contributes in both places.
The senior QB is the heart and soul of this offense and while Phillip Lindsay is the more prolific runner, Liufau runs with the ball regularly, too. He provides matchup problems for opposing defenses as he can extend plays with his legs and take advantage of failed coverages. He also pulls attention from Lindsay.
Matchup to Watch
Colorado’s offense is great, but the defense is even better, allowing just 18.5 points per game, ranking No. 13 in college football.
The Buffaloes’ defense has been able to contain the run and the pass almost equally well, but it’s the matchup against the Utah rushing attack that’ll be key to whether or not Colorado will be able to jump out to enough of a lead to cover the spread.
The Utes are an average team throwing the ball, but well above on the ground with Joe Williams able to match up well against Lindsay. Williams has truly been a season changing force for Utah, tearing up opposing defenses to the tune of 1,088 yards and nine scores. Lindsay, meanwhile, has scored more touchdowns. He also has more support generally, leaving us with the following query: can Williams get an adequate amount of support elsewhere in this offense?
In order to out produce Lindsay, which he’ll likely need to do, Williams will have to overcome a much tougher defense than his counterpart with the Buffaloes. That may and/or may not happen, but what can be counted on is the fact that the tailbacks will play a critical role.
Free ATS Pick
I think the safer bet on Saturday is against the total rather than the spread as I expect both running backs to have strong performances. If you’re looking to play on the spread, take the Buffaloes at home. They’re playing at home, for one, but are also seemingly unbeatable—at least against the spread.
Liufau becomes the difference as Lindsay and Williams match up blow for blow on the ground, constantly moving the chains, each reaching triple-digits.
All in all, this Colorado team wins the battle on both sides of the ball, delivering a more diverse offensive attack along with a truly top tier defense ranked No. 13 in the nation.
College Football Odds: Colorado 38, Utah 30
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