The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ six-game winning streak may have been snapped last week, but they still only have one conference loss and are in contention for the Sun Belt title. Texas State is winless in conference play and is the heavy underdog but would love to play the role of spoiler
After a slow start in non-conference play, Arkansas State has been really good in Sun Belt action and will aim to wrap it up with another victory here. Despite playing on the road, the Red Wolves have a strong talent advantage and shouldn’t have too much trouble dispatching of the Bobcats.
This matchup in Week 14 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, December 3, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State -23
Texas State +23
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
Arkansas State is a heavy road favorite and even so much of the betting public like the Red Wolves to cover. Arkansas State is getting more than 87 percent of the action to beat the spread.
The scoring total is pretty low for a college football game and the “under” is still the more popular choice. The moneyline for Arkansas State is at -2200 to win this one, while a Texas State upset would pay off handsomely at +1200.
Arkansas State is 6-5 straight up and 5-6 against the spread in 2016. The Red Wolves have been the favorite six times and have covered in three of them.
Texas State is 2-9 straight up and just 3-8 against the spread. The Bobcats have been the underdog ten times and have not fared well in those, covering only twice in those attempts.
Player to Watch
Justice Hansen – The Arkansas State quarterback has come on strong toward the end of the season. Despite the loss to Louisiana Lafayette last week, he threw for 393 yards.
Hansen is 172-for-293 passing with 2,335 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He took over as the starter in Week 3 and has won six of his nine starts. Hansen’s most prolific game came when he threw for 424 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to Central Arkansas.
Hansen has done a nice job of taking care of the ball in wins and hopes to do more of the same in this one.
Key Stat
82.7. That’s how many rushing yards that Texas State is averaging a game behind a rushing attack that’s nearly non-existent. Stedman Mayberry is the team’s leading rusher with 149 carries for 575 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bobcats rely heavily on their passing game and will need to again this week especially since they face a tough defense in Arkansas State this week. The Red Wolves are only allowing 157.7 rushing yards a game.
Texas State is a big underdog and will likely fall behind early. If the passing game isn’t clicking, even a large spread will be hard to cover.
Free ATS Pick
Arkansas State began the season 0-4 and looked to be heading nowhere fast, but has really turned it around in conference play. The Red Wolves are playing well despite last week’s loss and expected to take care of business.
Watch out for star pass-rusher Ja’Von Rolland-Jones, who set a conference record with his 27th career sack last time out. He will look to put the pressure on Texas State quarterback Tyler Jones.
Texas State gets this one at home but there won’t be much of an advantage with a sparse crowd expected for a struggling team. Arkansas State should be able to take care of business, although the spread is a bit too high as the Bobcats will score just enough to cover in this one.
College Football Odds: Arkansas State 34, Texas State 13
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