The Baylor Bears’ hot start to the season has disappeared and the oddsmakers don’t hold out much hope they can stop the slide against the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Big 12 foes will wrap up the regular season facing off in Week 14, and the Mountaineers will be heavy favorites.
Baylor has lost five consecutive games and the last four have been in blowout fashion. It could happen once again if West Virginia lives up to expectations as it gets this one at home.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Saturday, December 3, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Milan Puskar Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor +17
West Virginia -17
Over/Under 66.5
Odds Analysis
West Virginia is a heavy favorite to take care of business and the bettors are hitting them hard despite the sizable spread. More than 95 percent of the early money has come in on the Mountaineers as many believe this will be a lopsided affair.
The scoring total is pretty high but the gamblers think it’s not quite high enough as about two-thirds of the action has been hammering the “over” for this one.
West Virginia is 9-2 straight up and 5-6 against the spread this season. The Mountaineers have covered only twice in seven home games this season and will try to improve on that in this one.
Baylor is 6-5 straight up and 3-8 against the spread. The Bears have only been underdogs twice this season and have lost both times. Baylor has not done very well this year after high expectations and now the spread is starting to reflect its reality as it is a big-time underdog in this one.
Player To Watch
Zach Smith -- The Baylor quarterback hopes to have a big game to keep his team within striking distance. Smith threw for 377 yards with three touchdowns and an interception last week in his second start since taking over for the injured Seth Russell.
Baylor is a heavy underdog because its starting quarterback is no longer playing. Smith looked good last week but will be facing a much better defense this time around.
Key Stat
233. That’s at least how many rushing yards per game both teams are averaging this season so expect both sides to really move the ball well on the ground in this one.
The Mountaineers have averaged that number in their way to 33.4 points per game. Their leading rusher is Justin Crawford, as he has 129 carries for 959 yards and nine touchdowns on the year. West Virginia has several talented runners and will substitute them in regularly to keep people fresh.
Baylor is having even more success on the ground, averaging 255.2 yards per game. The Bears are scoring 36.2 points per game as it has been their defense which has let down.
Baylor’s leading rusher is Terence Williams. He has 149 carries for 855 yards and 10 touchdowns. He missed a game recently but came back well last time out against Texas Tech, rushing for 147 yards. He needs to have a big game if the Bears are going to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
Free ATS Pick
Baylor has been in a tailspin amid some early-season controversy and now it seems like the team just wants the season to end. It long ago qualified for a bowl game but does not look like a team that deserves that spot any more.
The Bears still have talent on the team but have not been competitive for four straight weeks and are expected to lose by blowout again.
West Virginia has been good this season, with only a pair of losses against tough foes Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers will aim to reach double-digit victories with the win and get into a prestigious bowl game.
West Virginia should win but take Baylor to cover the spread.
College Football Odds: West Virginia 45, Baylor 31
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