The Kansas State Wildcats and TCU Horned Frogs are out of the running for the Big 12 title but the winner of their Week 14 matchup will improve their bowl positioning. They are pretty similarly talented and as long as all the key players participate the spread doesn’t figure to be too high.
TCU is at home which should give it the advantage, but Kansas State could certainly pull off the road upset if it plays well.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Saturday, December 3, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas State
TCU
Odds Analysis
There is no line on this one as the health of Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz must be defined. TCU figures to be the favorite either way since it is playing at home but the spread can change depending on if Ertz can play or not.
Kansas State is 7-4 straight up and 4-6-1 against the spread this season. The Wildcats have only been underdogs three times this season and have covered in two of those outings.
TCU is 6-5 straight up but is only 2-9 against the spread. The Horned Frogs have been the favorites seven times and have only covered once. TCU is also 0-6 trying to cover the spread at home and would love a turnaround in this one.
Injury Report
The Wildcats hope to have Ertz in the fold after he left last week’s win over Kansas early due to an undisclosed injury. Coach Bill Snyder did not seem too concerned after the game so that seems to be a good sign for his availability.
Ertz has completed 129-of-223 passes for 1,401 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 140 carries for 775 yards and nine touchdowns.
Ertz is a key player in this game and if he can’t do it would certainly swing the point spread. It should be decided soon once it is known how serious his injury suffered was last time out.
Matchup to Watch
TCU rushing game against the Kansas State rushing defense - This will be a key matchup for both sides. The Kansas State defense is allowing just 109.9 rushing yards a game coming into this one while the TCU offense is averaging 201.6 yards a game.
Kyle Hicks is TCU’s leading rusher with 894 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He had a career game against Baylor a few weeks ago, finishing with 26 carries for 192 yards and five touchdowns.
If he gets loose, Hicks can be a difference-maker but Kansas State has done a nice job against the run this season and hopes to keep it up.
Free ATS Pick
TCU played well early in the season but has lost three of its past five games. The Horned Frogs’ offense is top-notch but the defense has been a letdown at times.
Kansas State is not as explosive offensively but has a better defense, which is why this is such an intriguing matchup. In the end, the Horned Frogs will likely have enough firepower to win this contest, using the home crowd to their advantage.
Choose TCU to not only win this game outright but to cover the spread as well. The scoring total is something to watch as this one could have a good number of points if the TCU offense can get untracked and Ertz plays for Kansas State.
While the Horned Frogs haven’t quite put together the same season they did in recent years, it has been a moderately successful one. They will aim to cap the regular season in style with a big win against a tough Kansas State team.
College Football Odds: TCU 38, Kansas State 31
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