The South Alabama Jaguars can clinch bowl eligibility with a win in the regular season finale over the New México State Aggies. South Alabama plays at home in this Week 14 matchup and is a substantial favorite, so it is looking like the team should be able to take care of business to qualify for the postseason.
New México State can’t get into a bowl but can play spoiler with a win. It will be tough as the Aggies have struggled to stop teams this season.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 14 game is set for Saturday, December 3, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +12
South Alabama -12
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
South Alabama is a solid home favorite despite having an inferior conference record. That isn’t driving away bettors, as the Jaguars are currently getting a lion’s share of the action to cover the spread.
The “over” has been the more popular play when it comes to the scoring total, and that makes sense because while neither offense is great there may be some suspect defense.
New México State is 3-8 straight up but 7-4 against the spread this season as expectations were quite low throughout the year. The Aggies have been the underdog nine times this season and have covered in six of those matchups.
South Alabama is 5-6 overall but just 3-8 against the spread. The Jaguars have been particularly poor as the favorite, failing to cover all four times. They hope to buck that trend int this matchup.
Injury Report
New México State quarterback Tyler Rogers missed last week’s game against Appalachian State with an elbow injury and it’s unclear if he’ll return this week against South Alabama. With Conner Cramer in for Rogers, the Aggies accumulated just 93 yards in the air last week.
Losing Rogers again this week would be a big blow. Rogers leads an offense that is averaging 255.9 passing yards a game. The Aggies face a tough test in South Alabama this week.
The Jaguars are holding opponents to 177.5 passing yards a game this season. Without Rogers, this week’s matchup becomes that much tougher to manage for the Aggies.
His precarious position is one reason why New México State is the underdog.
Player to Watch
Dallas Davis – The South Alabama quarterback is coming off a strong performance last week against Idaho and will look to continue that this week against New México State. Davis threw for 320 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Davis is 172-of-296 for 2,222 yards with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. The sophomore has struggled with accuracy at times, but remains the motor behind this offense and will be key in this matchup.
South Alabama is averaging 244.1 yards per game through the air and will likely aim to take advantage of a soft New México State secondary. The Aggies have a lot of trouble defensively and need to hold up in order to have a shot at the upset.
Free ATS Pick
While the offenses are similar statistically, South Alabama has the better defense, which is why it is the favorite in this matchup. The Aggies are allowing nearly 40 points per game, which is one of the worst marks in the country.
South Alabama has lost some close games this season and if this one remains competitive the Jaguars hope to have better luck.
New México State has an average point-differential of minus-15 this season, which is reason why a better conference record is fool’s gold. South Alabama is the better team and has a lot to play for. Take the Jaguars to cover easily and earn a bowl game with the win.
College Football Odds: South Alabama 34, New México State 17
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
