The Broncos are sizable favorites as they have rolled through the conference season and don’t seem to have many weaknesses. Western Michigan is setting itself up for a nice bowl game but Ohio can not only play spoiler but improve their bowl standing in this neutral site affair.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Friday, December 2, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio +19
Western Michigan -19
Odds Analysis
Western Michigan is a big-time favorite and it will take a blowout to cover the spread. The gamblers see that happening as 65 percent of the money is coming in on the Broncos to cover.
Western Michigan is 12-0 straight up and 9-3 against the spread on the year. The Broncos have covered in eight of 11 attempts as the favorite.
Ohio is 8-4 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. The Bobcats have covered in three of four games as the underdog this season.
Player to Watch
Corey Davis - The Western Michigan wide receiver set the FBS career record for receiving yards in last week’s win over Toledo, surpassing Nevada’s Trevor Insley, who accumulated 5,005 yards. Davis had eight catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in the game and now has 5,068 receiving yards in his tenure with the Broncos.
Davis will have two more games to add to that total, and Ohio must focus on slowing him down. Davis has 83 catches for 1,283 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. He has gone over 150 yards three times, including a ridiculous 12 catches for 272 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State.
Davis had 941 receiving yards as a freshman and surpassed 1,400 yards each of the past two seasons. He is on pace to get there once again as he puts a bow on one of the most impressive careers in the history of the Western Michigan program.
Key Stat
14. That’s the smallest margin of victory for Western Michigan in conference games this season. The Broncos beat Eastern Michigan 45-31 and while a few teams have hung around into the fourth quarter, Western Michigan has always finished strong to pull away.
The Broncos also added non-conference wins against Big Ten teams Northwestern and Illinois, proving they are a legitimate choice as a dominant small-school team. Western Michigan is averaging 44.8 points per game while only giving up 19.2 per contest, and there have been many games where the opponent hasn’t had much of a chance from the start.
Ohio won’t be a pushover as the Bobcats have a solid group, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Western Michigan continues its streak of beating MAC teams by two-plus touchdowns.
Free ATS Pick
These teams haven’t played this season so it’s unknown exactly how it will go, but Western Michigan clearly has the advantage as it looks to get one step closer to an undefeated season.
The Bobcats made it to the MAC championship game by beating Miami of Ohio to win the tiebreaker as they each had a pair of conference losses. Ohio’s strength is its defense, which is only allowing 21.7 points per game and has held four of its last eight opponents to 10 points or less.
The Bobcats will try to run the ball effectively on offense, and that’s their best shot at pulling this upset. Ohio is led by Dorian Brown on the ground, as he has 794 yards and four touchdowns.
While Western Michigan doesn’t always lock down opponents, Ohio may not have enough premier athletes on offense to score in quick strikes. That could be a problem if the Broncos pull ahead as expected.
Western Michigan has put together a storybook season and the streak won’t end here. The Broncos should be able to take care of business to win the conference title and enter bowl season undefeated, but Ohio is the choice to cover the spread.
College Football Odds: Western Michigan 38, Ohio 24
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