Penn State has caught fire of late and became the unlikely winner of the Big Ten East because of a head-to-head win over Ohio State, but is likely to be the underdog in this showdown with Wisconsin. The Badgers have an elite defense and hope it can lead them to a conference championship and a subsequent shot at the national semifinals.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Saturday, December 3, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State +2.5
Wisconsin -2.5
Odds Analysis
Wisconsin has looked like a slightly better team this season and thus has the point spread advantage at the neutral site. The Badgers are getting more than 83 percent of the early action as clearly the gamblers like Wisconsin to win this one. The spread is enticing as a field goal margin would result in a cover.
Wisconsin is 10-2 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread, going toe-to-toe against the majority of their opponents or blowing them out when able. The Badgers are 5-2-1 attempting to cover the spread this season as the favorite.
Penn State is 10-2 straight up and 8-3-1 against the spread this season. The Nittany Lions have covered in three of four tries as the underdog this season, including a huge upset of Ohio State earlier in the season to put themselves in this position.
Player to Watch
Trace McSorley -- The Penn State quarterback struggled early in the season, throwing five touchdowns but three interceptions in the team’s first four games, and the Nittany Lions lost a pair of them. Since then he’s been really good, throwing only two more interceptions the rest of the way.
McSorley has thrown for 2,600 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and is coming off a game in which he threw for 376 yards and four scores in a 45-12 rout of Michigan State.
He has a really tough chore against a Wisconsin defense that is among the best in the nation. He needs to be patient, as this one could be low-scoring and McSorley needs to take care of the ball to avoid giving Wisconsin advantageous field position after turnovers.
Key Stat
Seven -- That’s the margin of loss in Wisconsin’s two defeats this year, to Ohio State and Michigan. Those are two of the best teams in the country and the Badgers stayed right with them, which is why they are also seen as one of the better programs this year.
While both the Wolverines and Buckeyes will be sitting out the Big Ten Championship game, Wisconsin will be there and hoping to make a case for the College Football Playoff with a win. It could be a tough argument since they lost to both Ohio State and Michigan, but a definitive win over Penn State is all they can do before letting the selection committee figure it out.
Free ATS Pick
Penn State started this season slowly but has turned it around and became the unlikely winner of their Big Ten division. The Nittany Lions, though, must knock off a tough Wisconsin team in order to claim the conference crown.
While this may not have been the matchup expected, it is nonetheless between two talented teams who are playing well. Ohio State still may be the College Football Playoff entrant from the conference, but the championship will go to one of these two.
Wisconsin has the better defense, and expect that to be the difference in this one. Take the Badgers to cover as well.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 23, Penn State 17
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