The San Diego State Aztecs amped their defensive game up tremendously at the end of last season by holding nine of their final ten opponents to 17 or fewer points en route to having the program’s best season in decades. A major test and revenge spot is set to go down in Week 2 when the California Golden Bears invade Qualcomm a year removed from taking a bite of and spitting out Rocky Long’s defense in Berkeley.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
California +7.5
San Diego State -7.5
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
Limited line movement has occurred in this Week 2 clash with the Golden Bears taking some of the early money. San Diego State opened up as 8 point home chalk on Sunday night, but it has since been bet down to -7.5. Cal is garnering just over 72 percent of the side bets, and that likely has much to do with the ease in which they carved up Hawaii’s defense in Australia. The Aztecs defense is a much different animal, but this is the Pac-12 against the Mountain West, so this line will likely head even more south before kickoff.
The total has garnered the most line movement thus far with it shooting up to 63 from the 59.5 opener. Cal showed little if any resistance at stopping the Rainbow Warriors ground attack, and Donnel Pumphrey is on the verge of breaking all of Marshall Faulk’s San Diego State records. The Golden Bears offense didn’t skip a beat with Davis Webb at the controls, but again, it won’t be nearly as easy this week with the Aztecs sporting one of the best secondaries in the nation headlined by senior Demontae Kazee.
Last Meeting
It took some time for Cal to figure out Rocky Long’s defense a year ago with Jared Goff and the offense taking until the 12 minute mark of the 2nd quarter to punch one in the end zone, but it was smooth sailing after with the home team cruising to the 35-7 win and cover as 12.5 point chalk. The 42 combined points failed to surpass the closing 59 point total.
Still, it was just a 14-7 game at the break and you can bet the Aztecs will look to make amends for one of their uglier defeats of last season.
Player to Watch
Pumphrey managed just 85 yards on 21 carries against the Golden Bears defense and failed to reach the end zone last year. It was one of his more vanilla efforts of the season, and one he’ll most definitely look to better this week after rushing for 98 yards with a score while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
I already alluded to the fact that Cal had major issues limiting Hawaii’s run game. The Rainbow Warriors ran for 248 yards at 6.5 yards per carry, and that will no doubt have Pumphrey licking his chops heading into this one. Heck, he could break Faulk’s rushing record in this game if it turns out to be a really special night. If that occurs, SDST will no doubt be in an excellent position to win and cover the number in the process.
Free ATS Pick
Though taking advantage of a down Mountain West at the end of the season and then destroying a disinterested Cincinnati club in their bowl won’t impress many, I fully expect San Diego State to have complete control of how this game plays out. If they’re able to run the ball at will and keep it a clean game without costly turnovers, it should be a wire-to-wire victory. If not, Cal has the offensive weapons to hang around and make it interesting.
This one boils down to the defenses for me. Cal’s front seven is sieve-like in the way it allowed Hawaii to bust off big gainer after big gainer. SDST possesses one of the best running backs in the country fully capable of taking it to the house each and every time he’s handed the pigskin. Cal will eventually make adjustments to stop the run, and when that happens, look for Christian Chapman to go hunting for receivers, likely Mikah Holder, and force the Golden Bears to play catch up late.
Look for the Aztecs to have the books in good moods late Saturday night.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 37, California 23
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