After opening their 2016 campaign with a thrilling overtime defeat in Austin last Sunday night, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will return home to the comforts of South Bend, IN where they’ll look to take some aggression out on a Nevada Wolf Pack squad still working out the kinks of implementing a new offensive philosophy. After giving up over 500 yards to the Longhorns, you can bet ND’s defense will have a much different look to it in Week 2.
Watch this regular season Week 2 matchup live on Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nevada +28
Notre Dame -28
Over/Under 60.5
Odds Analysis
The Irish opened up as low as 26.5 point favorites for this Week 2 clash with the Wolf Pack. Though Brian Kelly’s squad looked dreadful trying to defend Texas’s fast paced attack last week, the betting public went ahead and bet that number up to -28 where it currently sits. While Notre Dame looked pretty bad defensively, it’s still one of the most square sides backed every passing week. It’s likely not done heading closer to 30.
There’s been no movement with the 60.5 point total as the betting public knows what to expect from the Irish’s offense, but that isn’t the case with Nevada who is implementing new schemes coming off a season that saw them rank No. 73 in total offense and No. 62 in scoring offense.
Matchup to Watch
Notre Dame had a heck of a time attempting to limit Tyrone Swoopes when he lined up under center for Texas last week. Though he only gained 53 yards on three carries, he was deadly in goal line situations rushing for three touchdowns which included the game winner in overtime.
Nevada’s Tyler Stewart only rushed for 323 yards on 97 carries last season and added another 31 yards on eight carries in last week’s overtime victory against Cal Poly Slo. While the Wolf Pack will predominantly look to James Butler to pace the rushing attack, Stewart will get his totes as well. If he’s able to succeed much like Swoopes did last week, Notre Dame really has to start figuring out what it can do to limit dual threat quarterbacks.
Player to Watch
DeShone Kizer showed that he is the one that should be taking all snaps under center the remainder of this season. He was the straight up goods last week in throwing for 215 yards and five touchdowns while adding another 77 yards and a score on 13 carries on the ground.
The second aspect of his output is what we’ll target here as a main reason why Notre Dame will be able to get ahead of this hefty number. Nevada conceded 140 yards and two touchdowns to Cal Poly’s Dano Graves last week on 26 total carries. It gave up 383 total yards on the ground against an offense that showed absolutely no desire to throw the football much like the service academies. If Nevada allows Kizer to run wild in this one as well, they stand absolutely no chance of staying within 40 points of the Irish.
Free ATS Pick
Say what you will about Notre Dame’s epic overtime defeat against Texas. The offense showed it’s amongst the powerhouses in the country, and Nevada simply doesn’t have the horses to hang or prevent them from doing as they please. Kizer, Tarean Folston and whoever else gets any carries is going to rip this defense apart on the ground. Once they load the box with their experienced secondary to help take off some of the pressure, the Irish will take advantage and beat them over the top.
Along with the matchups, the scenario doesn’t add up to Nevada having a prayer against Touchdown Jesus with Kelly’s kids looking to wipe the bad taste of last week’s OT loss out of their collective mouths.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame 63, Nevada 20
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