The East Carolina Pirates have had a reputation for being giant killers over the last few seasons. East Carolina has knocked off Virginia Tech in each of the last two seasons and before that, knocked off North Carolina as part of a home and home in 2013 and 2014. That kind of record against ACC foes would scare most teams away from scheduling them, but not the North Carolina State Wolfpack who travel to Greenville in College Football Week 2.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 10, 2016,at 12 p.m. ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
East Carolina +4.5
North Carolina State -4.5
Odds Analysis
This line has yo-yoed around quite a bit since the open. NC State originally was a 3.5-point favorite when the line came out, but the line quickly moved to 6.5 in many shops. Since then, the line has come back down and now sits at a spread that indicates ECU has a legit chance to pull the upset.
Key Stat
Both these teams have been relatively sublime in out-of-conference play over the past few seasons. East Carolina is 10-3 ATS since 2013 with outright wins over Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and this NC State team as well. It has consistently given its regional rivals in stronger conferences fits and its surprising that many continue to schedule this team.
Dave Doeren may stink in the ACC, but he can at least win, and cover, against non-conference foes. During his now four seasons in Raleigh, the Wolfpack are 12-1 straight up against non-ACC teams and have covered seven straight. The lone loss during this stretch was, of course, to NC State back in November 2013.
Coaching Angle
Firing Ruffin McNeal after a 5-7 campaign in 2015, was seen as a surprise to most observers. McNeal had the Pirates continuing to play at the same high level it has during his tenure, but the AAC had its strongest year since becoming a conference and McNeal was fired as a result.
Enter Scottie Montgomery. Montgomery has a pretty unique history in that he was a secondary coach at Duke just last decade before switching to become the Duke offensive coordinator over the past three seasons. He will continue to have the Pirates throw the ball a lot if his time at Duke is any indicator and they should put up a healthy amount of points against the Wolfpack.
Free ATS Pick
NC State brought over Ryan Finley from Boise State with the graduation of Jacoby Brissett and he played well in his first game against William and Marry. Finley wasn’t asked to throw the ball much, but did complete over 80 percent of his passes and that’s the kind of accuracy you’re looking for in a quarterback.
He is also helped by the addition of OC Eli Drinkwitz who was his coordinator at Boise. Drinkwitz knows his strengths and weaknesses by this point and should be able to help Finley become a competent quarterback in the ACC.
Although it was against Western Carolina, ECU’s offensive explosion gives the Pirates a lot of reason for optimism. There were a lot of concerns in Greenville about what was going to happen to the program with Ruffin out, but the season opener assuaged some of them. The offense put up 688 total yards and will test the Wolfpack defense here.
This game should be close for a while, but expect NC State to eventually pull away from East Carolina. The Wolfpack have more depth than the Pirates do and will be fully focused on not blowing this game. As long as Finley protects the ball, NC State should do just fine.
College Football Odds: Wolfpack 34, Pirates 26
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