16 years is a long time to go without playing your biggest in-state rival, but it’s been that long since the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Pittsburgh Panthers have squared off. These programs seem to be in about the same place at this point, but while Pitt is happy to be an 8-win team every season, Penn State is anxious to be in this spot and James Franklin is on the hot seat. College Football Week 2 doesn’t have many exciting storylines, but this is certainly one of them.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 2 game is set for Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 12 p.m.ET at Heinz Field on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh -6
Penn State +6
Odds Analysis
Early money has been all on the home team here. Pittsburgh opened as a 4-point favorite offshore and that has since shot up to six. It won’t get much further than that though and it will likely drop back to where it started around kickoff.
Player to Watch
Saquon Barkley flew under the radar with so many good running backs doing their thing in college football in 2015, but he is one of the bright stars. Barkley cracked the 1000-yard mark as a freshman last season and even ran wild against a defense as tough as Ohio State. He cracked the 100-yard mark last week against Kent State and has a tremendous blend of size and speed.
To succeed against Pitt, he’ll need some help from his offensive line. Penn State has had one of the most maligned offensive lines in football over the past two seasons. The Nittany Lions allowed a whopping 82 sacks over the last two season and running backs are picking up just 3.5 yards per carry behind the line. This unit will have to hold up against a very good Pitt defensive line for Barkley to have a solid game.
Key Stat
The Panthers have got to perform better on offense than they did against Villanova last week. Pittsburgh was still able to cruise to a win, thanks to a dominating defensive effort, but the offensive line struggled to create holes for James Conner and Qadree Ollison.
Nathan Peterman also failed to impress as he dinked and dunked his way to just 5.3 yards per pass. He’s never going to be a quarterback that airs it out in this offense, but no wide receiver had more than 40 yards and he was content to just check down to his running backs and tight ends. Penn State will swarm them if Peterman continues to just go for the high-percentage play and he needs to spread out the defense with a few deep balls.
Free ATS Pick
There’s no doubt this game will be low scoring. Both sides have very stout defenses and offenses that don’t know what to do if they can’t run the ball effectively. The defensive lines will likely both overwhelm their counterparts on the line of scrimmage and force the quarterbacks to beat them. Neither one is great, but Peterman at least has experience and doesn’t make mistakes with the football.
This game is extremely important for both teams as not only a measuring stick, but to help lure in-state recruits to come to their school. It’s also doubly important for a coach like Franklin who probably needs at least eight wins in order to make it to 2017.
Unfortunately for Franklin, Pittsburgh is the favorite in this game for a reason. The Panthers are more sound defensively and their offensive line can block Penn State’s, while Penn State’s line can’t block Pitt. Unless that offensive line plays with the same tenacity that kicker Joey Julius showed last week, it won’t be enough for Penn State.
College Football Odds: Panthers 24, Nittany Lions 14
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