The No. 23 Baylor Bears were definitely glad to put the worst offseason in program history and get back out on the field. After a scandal that rocked the university to its foundation, the school cut ties, eventually, with everyone in a position of power that was involved including Art Briles. Briles was the best coach in school history and replacing him will be no easy matter. Interim coach Jim Grobe led the Bears to an easy victory over Northwestern State last week, but will face a tougher test when the SMU Mustangs come to Waco in Week 2 College Football action.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 2 game is set for Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at McLane Stadium on FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor -31
SMU +31
Odds Analysis
The Bears opened as a 28.5-point favorite and the line has steadily rose since then to 31. Baylor was one of the highest scoring teams in the country year in and year out under Briles, but Grobe may show more mercy. Last week, Grobe called off the dogs after going up 48-0 in the first half and that led to the Bears failing to cover.
Player to Watch
Perhaps the biggest sign that there’s a new sheriff in town is that Seth Russell had a relatively modest game for a Baylor quarterback taking on an out-matched FCS opponent. Sure he torched the Demons for four touchdowns, but he only threw for 163 yards and tallied just 20 attempts on the evening. If this is indeed a new Bears team under Grobe that won’t go all out to score as much as possible, that means teams should find it easier to cover spreads.
Last season Russell torched the Mustangs, totaling six touchdowns and leading the Bears to 56 points. Those points were needed against a team like SMU that is trying to play at just as fast of a pace as Baylor and it will be easier for Grobe to leave his first-team offense out for a long time as a result.
Last Meeting
Baylor’s offense had one of its best games all season against SMU in 2015. The Bears averaged over 10 yards per play, setting a school record in the category, and every player that touched the ball seemingly had a great game. Baylor didn’t possess the ball much, just a shade over 22 minutes, but still dominated despite not controlling the clock at all.
Half-time adjustments were the key to Baylor emerging victorious over SMU last season. The Bears were only up 28-21 at halftime and had given up some big plays in the first half. However, in the second half, Baylor’s defense responded and allowed just 109 yards in the half as SMU was unable to score again. That kind of performance may not happen this season as Briles’ staff was one of the best at second-half adjustments.
Free ATS Pick
SMU feels like it’s one more year away from being relevant again. Chad Morris has turned the offense from a laughing stock into an effective unit and the Mustangs are lighting up scoreboards. The issue has been the defense, which was one of the worst units in all of college football last season and doesn’t look like it has gotten much better. Baylor won’t have trouble putting points on the unit and would cover if it played the whole game.
However, the Bears likely won’t play their starters late into the game assuming they are up comfortably for another reason, depth. Baylor’s depth took a big hit after what happened in the offseason and recently signed recruits fled the campus left and right. For that reason, the Bears will do just enough to be comfortable before pulling their first-team and allowing the Mustangs to get a back door cover.
College Football Odds: Bears 51, Mustangs 27
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