After going winless a year ago, the Central Florida Golden Knights were able to crank out a win against South Carolina State in Scott Frost’s head coaching debut. That’s all good and dandy, but the overall effort was far from pristine and now they have to travel to the Big House in Week 2 where the Michigan Wolverines just dominated and nearly shutout Hawaii in their home debut. Jim Harbaugh looks to be out for style points before the schedule gets tougher, and that can only mean bad news for this AAC rep.
This contest in Week 2 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
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UCF +34.5
Michigan -34.5
Over/Under OTB
Odds Analysis
The betting public immediately jumped on the Wolverines at the open with the pointspread jumping up to -37.5 after opening around -35 and then coming back down to it’s current posting. That hardly comes as a surprise with Michigan taking advantage of a road weary Hawaii club that came to Ann Arbor via Australia where it looked much better against California in its season opener.
After cruising to a 60 point win last week, it’s no doubt square money that came in early and inflated the line at the open. Nobody looks at a five touchdown spread and says they have to lay it. That said, Jim Harbaugh has no issue running up the score, and Michigan looked to be a team on a mission last week.
Key Stat
It took UCF 19.3 yards gained to average just one point in their 12 games played last season. While the offense looked much better in Week 1 with it racking up 462 yards and 38 points (12.2 YPP), it did so against FCS rep South Carolina State. Most of the Golden Knights yardage was attained on the ground with the trio of Jawon Hamilton, Taj McGowan and quarterback Justin Holman combining for 141 yards and one touchdown.
The Wolverines allowed just 81 total rushing yards at a 2.2 yards per carry average to the Rainbow Warriors. It’s going to be tough for UCF to move the ball and score if it doesn’t get some breathing room for the passing attack.
Matchup to Watch
While no doubt premature, the Wolverines own the nation’s No. 2 ranked defensive yards per point average at 78.7. They attained that lofty ranking by allowing a grand total of 232 yards and 3 points to a Hawaii offense that looked at the very least competent against the Cal Golden Bears in racking up 26 first downs, 31 points and 482 total yards against – good for a 15.5 YPP. Against Michigan, it shot up to near 80!
UCF converted just 35 percent of its third down chances and was forced to go for it four times on fourth down; they converted three times. This is not an efficient offense, and there’s a high probability the visitors fail to find the end zone in this one. Should the Golden Knights fail to continue running the ball against much stiffer completion, Michigan is going to cruise to yet another home win and cover.
Free ATS Pick
Much stiffer opposition awaits the Wolverines next week when the Colorado Buffaloes pay Ann Arbor a visit, but there won’t be any looking ahead to that game. I mean come on, it’s the Colorado Buffaloes.
Michigan started out slow last week with quarterback Wilton Speight’s first pass getting intercepted, but he was nearly flawless after that in throwing for 145 yards and three touchdowns while completing nearly 77 percent of his passes. UCF ranked No. 10 in the AAC and No. 110 in the country defending the pass last season. This matchup presents the youngster yet another solid opportunity to gain some self-confidence, while the defense makes life a living hell for Holman and company.
Last week’s 63-3 pounding was U of M’s most lopsided victory since 1975. While they won’t win this one by 60, they’ll come close with Harbaugh’s kids continuing to excel at all three levels.
College Football Odds: Michigan 52 , UCF 10
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