AAC action is set to go in Week 2 when the UConn Huskies pack their bags for Annapolis where the Navy Midshipmen will look to host them for the first time as conference rivals. The visitors bring the more experienced team into this matchup, but Ken Niumatalolo has built a heck of a program at the Naval Academy and will be ready to extend his teams two game win streak in the recent series.
Watch this regular season Week 2 matchup live on Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UConn +4
Navy -4
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
With the Huskies returning 15 players from last year’s team that took steps in the right direction and the Middies seemingly reloading without the best player the program has ever had, it comes as no surprise to see all the early betting action going the way of the visitors in this matchup.
Navy opened as 7.5 point home favorites, but has since been bet down to just 4 point chalk at reduced -105 juice. The betting public isn’t reading much into last week’s ugly 24-21 win over Maine of whom Connecticut closed as 27 point favorites against. Though Keenan Reynolds won’t be lining up under center for the Middies offense, you can’t help but think some late Navy money will come in and push the closing line closer to the opener.
Last Meeting
These teams met as AAC rivals for the first time last season in Storrs. Reynolds pretty much single handedly led the Huskies to the 28-18 win rushing for 142 yards and three touchdowns on 28 attempts. Navy won the time of possession battle by more than five minutes, didn’t turn the ball over and converted 8-of-12 third down attempts.
UConn almost matched Navy’s 343 total yards with 325 of its own with current quarterback Bryant Shirreffs completing 19-of-32 passes for 219 yards and a pair of touchdown strikes. Arkeel Newsome and company only rushed for a total of 106 yards, turned the ball over once, and converted just 4-of-12 third down attempts. They were forced to go for it five times on fourth down and converted only once.
Player to Watch
Tago Smith bided his time playing the role of back-up behind Reynolds for the last two seasons. Now a senior, he’s been given the reins of the Middies triple-option attack and run with it. He did well subbing in for Reynolds when injuries forced him to miss a couple games, and did a great job navigating the offense in the season opener against Fordham.
He completed his lone pass for 45 yards, and added 97 yards and two touchdowns on 10 total rushing attempts. Behind a rebuilt offensive line, Smith played the part of a confident triple-option leader and his role in this game will be crucial for the Midshipmen to keep their current eight game home winning streak intact.
Free ATS Pick
It does come away as a bit surprising to see the betting public lining up in droves to back the Huskies plus the points in this tilt. I get it though. UConn has the veteran laden team and the program looks to be turning its fortunes around with Bob Diaco now at the helm. We all know they have what it takes to get the job done evidenced by them taking out Houston last season, but can they do it on the road? That’s something I’m not confident predicting can or will happen until the Huskies actually take someone down with a pulse away from their own digs.
What I am confident in predicting is that points are going to be extremely tough to come by in this game. UConn has a defense well versed in stopping Navy’s offense, while the Middies possess possibly one of their strongest defenses of the current triple-option era. UConn managed just a 15.1 offensive yards per point average last week against Maine – a team they were heavily favored to beat but only did so by three. Navy just held a pretty good FCC team in Fordham to a 29.0 OYPP. Yup, look for the defenses to dictate the outcome of this one.
College Football Odds: Navy 19, UConn 17
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
