The USC Trojans certainly looked the part of the AP Poll’s No. 20 ranked team through one quarter of play against top ranked Alabama last Saturday night. That’s where the fun ended unfortunately, as the Crimson Tide toyed with their Pac-12 opponent the rest of the way ultimately turning the game into a one-sided laugher. Now Clay Helton’s kids have to regroup quickly in Week 2 against a sound Utah State team that has the rushing attack to add to the Trojans misery.
This contest in Week 2 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at Los Angeles Memorial Stadium.
College Football at BookMaker.eu
Utah State +16.5
USC -16.5
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
Had the Trojans not been blown out by 46 points, this line would have most definitely been higher. Be that as it may, Trojans backers might feel as if they’re getting a discount in this one. A virgin -14 hit the board initially but was immediately bet up to -16.5 with the betting public of the belief the Trojans overall athleticism will simply be too much for Utah State. With better than 85 percent of the money currently riding USC in its home opener, it’s likely this line continues to climb.
A flat 60 hit the board at BookMaker and was bet down a half point to 59.5. While the Aggies lost some star power at the linebacker position, it’s still got some nice pieces up front and in the secondary. USC’s offense looked terrible last week, but that was against Alabama. It’ll likely rebound here tonight, but USU’s stop unit won’t roll over.
Last Meeting
The Aggies will not be intimidated by the Coliseum. Matt Wells’ kids paid a visit to Southern Cal in 2013 and gave the then Cody Kessler led Trojans a fight to the finish. The defense held USC to less than 300 total yards of offense, while the Chuckie Keeton led offense didn’t turn the ball over and played sound ball all the way through.
The game was tied heading into the fourth quarter when the Trojans took the lead. No more points were scored the rest of the way allowing USC to hold on for the 17-14 win and non-cover as seven point favorites. The combined 31 points went way under the closing 50 point total. USC is 5-0 in the all-time series.
Matchup to Watch
In that matchup three years back, Utah State primarily ran a passing offense. That is not the case anymore with Devante Mays exploding onto the scene at the end of last season. He ran wild last week for 208 yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries. While the big effort came against Weber State, USC allowed the Crimson tide to rush for 242 yards and 5.4 yards per carry.
USC’s success or lack thereof will all boil down to the defense’s ability to turn the page on last week’s embarrassing effort and stop the Aggies cold in their tracks. It won’t be easy however with USU lining up four hogs up front that garnered all-league honors last season.
Free ATS Pick
USC is nowhere near as bad as it portrayed itself to be last week. Bama is very unforgiving if it gets a chance to rub your nose in it, and that’s exactly what Saban’s kids did. However, the defense has a ways to go before I’d entertain the thought of laying this type of chalk with them. Stanford on deck also has me leery.
The offense should have a much easier go of it this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster will not be held to just one catch for nine yards and they won’t convert at an 18 percent clip on third down. That said, the offense will only be able to do so much if the defense allows the Aggies run game to go off like it did last week.
USC has to show me it can stop the run first, and until it does, there’s no way I’ll be laying three possessions. Especially with the Trojans 0-3 ATS the last three times they laid chalk of this magnitude in front of the hometown faithful and Matt Wells coached Aggies teams losing by an average of just 7.8 points per game versus the four Pac-12 opponents they’ve run up against.
College Football Odds: USC 33, Utah State 20
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