The Duke Blue Devils will attempt to take down the Wake Forest Demon Deacons for the fifth straight time when the ACC rivals cross paths in Week 2 Saturday afternoon. The Dookies toyed with North Carolina Central last week rolling up 535 total yards en route to the home win and cover, while the Deacs could have possibly lost to the Tulane Green Wave if not for the “Clawfense” once again masking the deficiencies of the offense.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 10, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Wallace Wade Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wake Forest +5
Duke -5
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
Even though Wake Forest looked wretched in disposing of the Green Wave by a whopping score of 7-3 and the Blue Devils cruised against their FCS opponent, the betting public has sided with the visitors in this matchup. Though 60 percent of the bets have come in on the Dookies, the betting line has fallen from the 7 point opener to -5. The juice has fluctuated between -105 and -110 on the home team, so it’s likely this is where the market leaves this number prior to kickoff.
The total for this game started off low at 46, but has since moved even lower to 44.5. That despite each of the last two meetings combining to go over the closing number. Still, it’s hard to overlook just how badly Wake struggled against Tulane’s defense last week, but with Duke breaking in a new quarterback, the thought just might be that the home team will struggle like so many others have against this defense dating back to last season.
Last Meeting
Wake has managed to log 21 points each of the last two times it ran up against the Blue Devils. The only problem with that is that Duke scored 41 and 27 to pull out wins and covers in each game. In fact, you have to go back to September of 2010 to find the last time Wake Forest sent its backers back to the betting window versus their rivals from Durham.
Duke held a comfortable 24-7 lead nearly five minutes into the third quarter of last year’s meeting. Wake Forest rattled off two touchdowns after that to make the score look a bit more respectable, but the final outcome still wasn’t enough to cash against the spread.
Key Player
What’s really kept the Wake offense near the bottom of the rankings in most pertinent offensive categories recently has been inept quarterback play. John Wolford kept that trend going last week by completing just 9 of 17 passes for a whopping 79 yards without throwing a touchdown. Duke is extremely green up front defensively, but has some standouts and experience in the secondary.
Should Wake once again fail to get anything going through the air, it will allow the Blue Devils to load the box routinely and force Wolford to beat them with his arm. He’s excelled against the Dookies defense in his career throwing for a combined 589 yards and 5 touchdowns while completing better than 66 percent of his passes. He must step up once again so as to give his running backs more space to do some damage. It would also help in moving the chains and not forcing his defense to be on the field for a bulk of the game like it was last week.
Free ATS Pick
We were all over the under in last week’s tilt with the Green Wave. The 7-3 final ended up being one of the easier total cashes of my handicapping career. When breaking down last week’s game, I stated that I have faith in this year’s version of the Deacs. Even after that ugly win, I’m still on board.
Dave Clawson has the better overall team going in this brawl. Duke is extremely light on experience and David Cutcliffe doesn’t have the playmakers on either side of the ball that turned the program’s fortune around the last couple years. Wake’s defense is legit and I foresee it bottling both Daniel Jones and Parker Boehme up enough to really give the Blue Devils offense problems all game long. Look for the Deacs to snap their losing streak in the recent rivalry and take another step closer towards ending their bowl drought.
College Football Odds: Wake Forest 17, Duke 13
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