It was ugly, but the No. 21 Baylor Bears put another game in the win column last week after surprisingly struggling in the first half against an SMU team that gave the Bears a much better game than expected. Still, the offense came through when it needed to and now it’s time for the Bears to go on the road for the first time all season. Baylor will square off against the Rice Owls in what should be a Week 3 college football blowout.
Kickoff for this Week 3 game is set for Friday, September 16, 2016 at 8 p.m. ET at Rice Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Rice +30
Baylor -30
Odds Analysis
Under Art Briles, Baylor was a machine at covering large spreads. In the three seasons prior, when the Bears were at least a 24-point favorite, they were 13-5 ATS. It hasn’t been the same this season though.
The Bears are 0-2 ATS thus far in 2016 but are now 30-point favorites after the line opened at 27.5. Rice is 0-2 ATS themselves and didn’t come close to covering against both Western Kentucky and Army.
Matchup to Watch
Baylor can pick its poison against a Rice defense that has struggled to stop both the run and the pass. The Owls are 121st in the nation in total defense, allowing 531.5 yards per game, and that’s despite playing two one-dimensional offenses. In its first game, Rice faced pass-happy Western Kentucky and let up big play after big play. The Hilltoppers threw for over 500 yards on the Owls’ defense, but even more impressively averaged 16.7 yards per pass attempt.
Last week, Rice played an entirely different attack in Army and couldn’t stop that either. The Black Knights threw just four passes and kept the ball on the ground. Army ended up running for almost 350 yards against the Owls defense and four touchdowns.
Jim Grobe and the Bears can pick their poison against this Rice team. Both Seth Russell an Shock Linwood should have solid games through the air and on the ground and Baylor will likely cruise over 500 yards of total offense.
Key Stats
Any way you slice it, Rice’s offense has been anemic through the first two weeks of the season. WKU and Army aren’t defensive stalwarts and the Owls have still struggled to move the ball.
Rice is averaging just 4.75 yards per play and that’s one of the worst numbers in college football, especially when the defense is allowing 7.59 yards per play. The Owls are ineffective both running and passing the ball, rushing for just 3.65 yards play, and have thrown three times as many interceptions as touchdowns.
The Bears defense is currently allowing just 241.5 yards per game and should have no trouble stopping the Owls here.
Free ATS Pick
Grobe’s teams aren’t known to run up the score. He never blew out FCS opponents during his time at Wake Forest and hasn’t shown any proclivity to run it up early on against inferior opponents.
It’s going to be hard for the Bears not to cover this game though. Baylor has a massive talent advantage over Rice and a stable of running backs that will take turns gashing this defense. Even when Baylor gets up big, Shock Linwood and Terence Williams should be able to run over a tired Owls defense and continue to rack up yards and points. Grobe may not want to run up the score, but Rice won’t be able to stop the run either.
Take the early movement in this game as an indicator. 2.5 points isn’t a ton with a spread already this high, but the movement shows the sharps are thinking the same way too. Baylor is just too talented not to cover here.
College Football Odds: Bears 69, Owls 20
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