While the Michigan Wolverines cruised to their second straight blowout win and cover of the season last week, there were some glaring inefficiencies in their overall body of work. They’ll look to rectify those issues in Week 3 against what’s proven to be a game Colorado Buffaloes side that’s gotten out to the program’s best start since 2013 in hopes of attaining its first winning record since 2005. Staying undefeated against Michigan will be its toughest test of the young season.
Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colorado +20
Michigan -20
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
With Michigan making minced meat of both Hawaii and Central Florida to start the year and once again getting to play this game at home, the initial move on the betting line was in their favor with it jumping from -19.5 to -20.5 before settling back down to -20.
After fading the opener against Hawaii and paying for it, there was limited line movement last week against UCF. With the Wolverines covering both numbers with ease, it’s likely this line creeps back up as the game gets closer to kickoff.
The total was immediately bet up a point to 57 from the 56 point opener. Michigan having issues stopping the run might have something to do with that with the Buffaloes owners of the nation’s No. 20 ranked rushing offense.
Key Stats
Through the first two weeks of the season, Colorado owns the nation’s No. 7 ranked total offense and No. 11 ranked scoring offense that’s averaged 50 points per game. One of the main reasons Sefo Liufau has the Buffs’ offense rolling has been the unit’s ability to keep the chains moving with it averaging 12 third down conversions per game – tied with TCU and Toledo for the second best mark in the country.
That said, those stats were accrued against Colorado State and FCS rep Idaho State. The Rams defense ranks No. 120 allowing 10 third down conversions per game. Michigan on the other hand ranks No. 7 in that category having allowed just 1.5 conversion per game. It’ll be interesting to see how potent CU’s offense can be when it can’t consistently get into a rhythm.
Matchup to Watch
Colorado’s defense has been impressive thus far in limiting the opposition to just 160.5 yards per game (No. 1) and 7.0 points per game (No. 6), but they’ve played nobody and are going to get a major dose of Michigan’s potent aerial attack. The Buffaloes have been more beatable on the ground, so make it a point to see how Michigan’s offensive line stands up to Colorado’s defensive front line.
The Wolverines had trouble running the ball last week, but if the offensive line finds a way to open some holes against CU’s defense, it will only allow the passing attack to do even more damage.
Free ATS Pick
Plenty of unknowns for both sides entering this matchup. Colorado has impressed and racked up some impressive stats on both sides of the ball, but tallied them against much lesser opposition than they’ll face today. Michigan has rolled to a pair of home wins and covers, but did just concede 275 yards rushing to UCF at 6.0 yards per carry.
Wilton Speight will be the toughest quarterback the Buffs will have had to deal with to date, but it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts to dealing with a defense that’s actually able to pressure him. Liufau could also be a terror for the Wolverines to contain with his dual threat ability.
Michigan won’t be in danger of losing this game, but asking it to cover another huge spread like this against a team playing with a ton of confidence is a bit rich for my blood. If the Buffs can limit turnovers and take advantage of Michigan’s weak link defensively, it could really put a scare into the Fightin’ Harbaughs. It would become even more interesting if it forces the Wolverines to once again be one dimensional and force Speight to beat them through the air amidst constant pressure.
Regardless, I don’t foresee Michigan running away and hiding in this one, and I’m actually pretty interested to see how they react to dealing with a dose of adversity for the first time this season.
College Football Odds: Michigan 27, Colorado 16
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