An upset over North Carolina State has caught the nation’s attention and the East Carolina Pirates are looking for an encore performance, this time on the road. Can the Pirates provide back-to-back upset wins and topple the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 3 or is that too much to ask? East Carolina was helped out last week by some crucial mistakes. They’ve certainly got a strong offense to make the Gamecocks’ lives difficult, but is the defense strong enough to hold? Probably not, but this could still be an exciting game to watch.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 3 game is set for Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 4 p.m. ET at Williams-Brice Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
East Carolina +4
South Carolina -4
Odds Analysis
The Gamecocks were heavier favorites when the odds were first published and bettors jumped on the Pirates’ bandwagon, driving the spread down. If you were one of those able to jump on the 5.5-point spread, congratulations, but at 4-points now, the line is more balanced.
Historically, the Gamecocks have owned this matchup. They won their last meeting in 2014 by 10 and have averaged a 22.3 point differential over the Pirates in their last three meetings. These two teams, however, are much closer in terms of talent and the reduced spread is beginning to reflect that reality.
Matchup to Watch
Will Muschamp is a defensive minded head coach, having spent most of his career as a defensive coordinator. He had an up-and-down tenure replacing Urban Meyer at Florida, but it was the defense that carried the teams during his stay in Gainesville.
With the Gamecocks scoring just 27 combined points in their first two games, South Carolina is looking like its following the same path, but the defense let the team down in Week 2. Muschamp benched Chris Lammons in the game and didn’t mince his words afterwards criticizing the defensive back for his inability to tackle.
Despite that, the early stats have still been favorable with regards to the team’s pass defense, allowing just 134 passing yards per game through Week 2, ranking No. 22 in the nation. It’s been the rushing attack that’s been the bigger issue with 459 total rushing yards allowed through Week 2.
The East Carolina offense revolves around Philip Nelson who already has six touchdown passes, but the running game is strong, too. Anthony Scott and James Summers have already combined for four touchdowns and 297 yards on just 38 touches.
For the Pirates to have any chance, they’ll need their offense to roll. That’s how they beat the Wolfpack. They don’t have the defense to compete with a SEC team in a low scoring game. If Muschamp’s crew comes out strong on defensive after a week of practice that will emphasize the fundamentals after the Week 2 loss, East Carolina could be in serious trouble.
Player to Watch
Keep an eye on outside linebacker Dayon Pratt for the Pirates. We’ve noted that the defense is a weakness for East Carolina, but the senior was responsible for seven tackles—including two for a loss—along with a sack against N.C. State in East Carolina’s upset victory in Week 2.
Overall, the Pirates’ defense is undersized and that’s a problem against bigger schools. It has forced the Scottie Montgomery and defensive coordinator Kenwick Thompson to get a bit creative in their alignment, putting their playmakers in a position to make things happen. As a result, here in the early going we’ve often seen Pratt along with fellow linebacker Tiannis Bowden attacking the end in 2-4-5 alignment, essentially matching up in a defensive end spot. The formula worked well enough on Saturday with Pratt able to shut down the Wolfpack offense just enough for the Pirates to outscore N.C. State in a shootout despite the opponent netting nearly eight yards a play.
South Carolina’s offense has yet to get rolling in its first two games, but with such a small East Carolina defensive, particularly up front, the squad will need scrappy linebacker play yet again to give them a chance and allow their offense to take care of business. Pratt delivered in Week 2 after a quiet Week 1.
Free ATS Pick
The Pirates look to be the feisty team none of the big teams want to play following their win over N.C. State. East Carolina could give South Carolina a run for its money in Week 3 as well, but a key difference is the Gamecocks are playing at home for the first time this season and Muschamp will be pulling out all the stops for a good first showing in front of the home fans.
While Pratt did his best to help contain the Wolfpack offense in Week 2, the Pirates still allowed 7.9 yards per play to N.C. State, relying on a few costly mistakes to allow them to record the upset victory.
Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of the weakness up front for the Pirates on defense and get the straight up victory. The score could still be elevated with South Carolina finally having a strong day offensively given the size advantage.
College Football Odds: South Carolina 30, East Carolina 27
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