The Georgia Bulldogs are 2-0 coming into Week 3. Just barely. The Bulldogs survived a close one against Nicholls State last week, fending off a late comeback attempt by their Southland Conference opponent to win 26-24.
Georgia will look for a much more solid performance this week on the road against the Missouri Tigers, who come into this contest at 1-1.
The Tigers fell to West Virginia in the season opener, but rebounded last week to win big against Eastern Missouri. Missouri dropped 61 points on the Eagles in last week’s win and will look to keep the offense rolling against the Bulldogs this Saturday.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 4:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia -6.5
Missouri +6.5
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
Even after a poor performance and a road trip, the Bulldogs are still nearly touchdown favorites, and nearly 78 percent of the money is coming in on them. Clearly the betting public thinks that the Nicholls State game was simply a hiccup and not indicative of trouble to come.
The scoring total is lower than most college football contests, and the “over” is the more popular choice at more than 84 percent of the bets.
Player to Watch
Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has already thrown for 730 yards this season, completing 47-of-88 pass attempts in the first two games for six touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a ton of weapons around him in in receivers Ray Wingo, J’Mon Moore, Johnathon Johnson, Chris Black and Emanuel Hall.
The sophomore had a record-setting performance in the Tigers’ 61-21 win over Eastern Missouri, completing 24-of-37 passes for 450 yards and five touchdowns. With the win, he tied a school record for touchdown passes in a game. It was also a career high.
He was 11-of-26 for 143 yards last year against Georgia, but will undoubtedly look to build upon last week’s breakout game this year against the Bulldogs.
Key stat
373. That was the total yards put up by Georgia last week against an FCS opponent, which doesn’t inspire confidence heading into SEC play. Running back Nick Chubb is a star, but if the Bulldogs don’t get the passing game going, this will be a tough game to cover.
The offensive line wasn’t able to dominate Nicholls State and will likely get a tougher test against Missouri. The Tigers had their own troubles in one of their games, but since they are at home and are sizable underdogs, they have a more significant cushion.
If Georgia doesn’t get its offense clicking, it will be tough to pull away.
Free ATS Pick
Georgia leads this matchup 4-1 all time since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. The Bulldogs won the 2015 matchup, 9-6, and have never lost to the Tigers in Missouri. The Tigers’ only win against the Bulldogs came in 2013, when they won 41-26 at the Georgia Dome.
Missouri and Georgia have both had some offensive stumbles early on, so this one could be a defensive battle. The Bulldogs have the more accomplished defense, which should give them a slight edge.
However, if the Tigers can hang around they will have a chance to pull off the upset. Georgia tumbled down the national rankings after the scare against an inferior opponent, and now hopes to prove that was an anomaly.
While that’s their hope, it’s not going to be the case. Missouri may not be a dominant team, but this spread is too high for a conference game at home. Expect it to stay nip-and-tuck throughout, and a moneyline play on Missouri could be a nice call.
Georgia’s struggles will continue as the Tigers pull the upset.
NCAA Football Odds: Missouri 23, Georgia 21
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