The TCU Horned Frogs will look to bounce back after losing in double overtime last week to Arkansas as they host the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday on FS1. This Week 3 matchup has the Horned Frogs listed as 22.5-point favorites. Iowa State has looked like one of the worst teams in the country so far this season as they lost to FCS foe Northern Iowa in their opener and then last week they were blown off the field by the Iowa Hawkeyes, losing 42-3. TCU comes into this game at 1-1 with a win over South Dakota State and a loss to Arkansas.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa State +22.5
TCU -22.5
Odds Analysis
There was very little early movement on this game from the opening line of -22.5 There is only one way this line is going to move and that is toward TCU as no one is going to want anything to do with an Iowa State team that couldn’t even beat Northern Iowa and then was blown out last week by Iowa.
TCU has been a bad team to bet this season going 0-2 ATS but they will be playing at home and Iowa State is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
TCU has been awful on defense this season and Iowa State can’t stop anyone so when the total comes out on this game it should immediately rise from the opening number.
Matchup to Watch
Whether or not the Cyclones can be competitive in this game and cover the spread should come down to their passing attack against the secondary of TCU. The Cyclones are only averaging 210.5 yards per game through the air but the TCU secondary has been awful, allowing 278 yards per contest.
Iowa State may already have a quarterback controversy as starter Joel Lanning was just 8 of 20 for 86 yards last week. He was pulled for Jacob Park in the third quarter. "I think we'll sit down and figure that situation out and really make the best decision as we move forward," Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said.
Player to Watch
The spotlight will be on TCU quarterback Kenny Hill who threw for 377 yards last week along with 93 yards rushing. Hill has thrown for 816 yards this season with 3 TDs and 3 interceptions and he has rushed for 138 yards and 5 TDs.
While Hill has great statistics so far this year he has frustrated his head coach Gary Patterson with his bad decisions. Hill has three interceptions on the season and last week in the loss to Arkansas he made a very poor decision on the final drive in regulation. “We weren't supposed to throw a fade, [Hill] checked to it, on the last play before we kicked the field goal, if you noticed I wasn't very happy.” Patterson said, “So if you wanna know something I'm not happy with, we checked to a fade when it was second and whatever and we had 27 seconds left and we had a chance to win."
Free ATS Pick
The Cyclones are a bad team and the Horned Frogs are an overrated team. This is a tough one to call as TCU should win the game handily but they have already proven they can’t be trusted laying points.
Instead of going with a side, I will look at the total. Iowa State has already shown they can’t stop anyone and TCU should score a lot of points and the Horned Frogs defense has been a sieve allowing 41 points per game this season. I will go over the total in this contest.
College Football Odds: TCU 45, Iowa State 27
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