The Memphis Tigers are big home favorites on Saturday against the Kansas Jayhawks in a contest that can be seen on ESPN U. The Jayhawks come into this game at 1-1 while the Tigers are 1-0. Kansas looked really good in Week 1 as they routed Rhode Island but they were brought back to earth last week in a loss to Ohio. On the other side, the Tigers rolled over SE Missouri State in their opener and then they had a bye last week. Memphis is listed as nearly a three-touchdown favorite in this Week 3 matchup.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas +20
Memphis -20
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
The Tigers opened up as 19.5-point favorites and the line moved up to 20.5 on Monday morning. There was a little bit of buyback as the number dropped back down to -20.
The total on the game opened at 59.5 and there was no early movement.
There has been some movement on this game toward Kansas but it is hard to see this game moving much off the current number of 20. Kansas is a bad football team but they at least showed some signs of life in the loss to Ohio and Memphis is not a team that can be trusted laying big points.
The total on this game might end up going higher as the Kansas defense is awful and the Memphis defense is not much better.
Player to Watch
The successor to Paxton Lynch at Memphis is Riley Ferguson who made his first start two weeks ago in a win over SE Missouri State. He had 295 yards passing with three touchdowns and two interceptions. “I thought he did some good things,” head coach Mike Norvell said. “It looked like a first game for him. He made a couple of poor decisions – threw the ball into coverage, had the two interceptions.”
Ferguson said his first game was “average.” He realizes that he needs to “go out and play smarter football.” The Tigers are expected to throw the ball a lot under Norvell and in the opener Ferguson threw the ball 40 times. The concern for Memphis is an offensive line that didn’t play that well in the opener. “That group has got to continue to come along,” Norvell said.
Key Stat
If you are going to bet on Kansas in this game then you have to go against some big time trends. The Jayhawks are just 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games in September and they are only 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
The one positive if you like Kansas is that Memphis has covered the spread in just one of their last five home games.
Free ATS Pick
The Jayhawks didn’t win or cover the spread against Ohio but at least they did show some signs of life late in the game. The problem for Kansas was that their defense simply couldn’t get off the field. They should do a little better in that regard simply because Memphis is not going to run it nearly as often or as effectively as Ohio did.
The Jayhawks are still not a good team but since when is Memphis good enough to be laying three touchdowns to anyone? The Tigers were not that good against SE Missouri State and now they come into this game off a bye. How much motivation is Memphis going to have going against a Kansas team they pummeled last season 55-23?
I will take the big points and go with Kansas in this game and also play the game over the total.
College Football Odds: Memphis 42, Kansas 27
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