Just a decade ago, who would have believed that the Miami Hurricanes would be traveling to Boone, NC for a non-conference game? That’s how far Miami has fallen since joining the ACC. However, there is legitimate optimism for the first time this decade after the Hurricanes brought in Mark Richt to be the new sheriff down in Miami. Richt and the Canes will have their first real test in College Football Week 3 when they face the Appalachian State Mountaineers.
Kickoff for this Week 3 game is set for Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 12 p.m. ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Appalachian State +3.5
Miami -3.5
Odds Analysis
Miami opened as a 4-point road favorite in this one, but after an initial push towards the Canes, money has come in on the home side. These teams are both 2-0 ATS with Miami waltzing over two opponents and App State hammering Old Dominion after falling to Tennessee in overtime.
Matchup to Watch
If not for Deshaun Watson, Brad Kaaya would be getting buzz as the best quarterback in the ACC heading into this season. Kaaya hasn’t put up the numbers you would expect a solid quarterback to post against two weak opponents though. He only has 326 yards passing and has thrown two interceptions. Whether or not Richt has simply gone totally vanilla or if there’s an underlying problem remains to be seen, but Kaaya will have his work cut out for him against App State’s secondary.
The Mountaineers have a staunch pass defense that shut down both Tennessee and Old Dominion through the air. App State has allowed under 6 yards per pass attempt, one of the better totals in the nation, and only allowed one reception of over 16 yards against the Volunteers.
Cornerback Latrell Gibbs is one of the top cornerbacks in the country that you’ve never heard of and it will be his job to shut down Stacy Coley. Gibbs has the speed and the quickness to prevent Coley from picking up big chunks of yardage and that will be one of the keys to an App State victory.
Key Stat
Appalachian State is going to try to run the ball with Marcus Cox all game long. Cox has went over the 100-yard mark in both of the Mountaineers’ games this season and averaged an impressive 4.8 yards per carry against Tennessee in the opener.
The Hurricanes lost two of their best defensive players at the start of the season in Al-Quadin Muhammad and Jermaine Grace and the jury is still out on how Miami’s defense will be without them. Miami has yet to play anyone who could test its run defense, but there is a lot of inexperience in the front seven and that’s what App State will try to exploit.
Cox won’t be able to effectively run it outside with Miami’s speed advantage, but if he can churn out gains between the tackles that bodes very well for App State’s chances.
Free ATS Pick
App State is going to be a very sexy pick to pull off the upset. The Mountaineers took the highly ranked Volunteers to overtime in the opener and there’s going to be a lot of public money on the home team as a result.
Miami is an unknown at this point. Richt probably has the team in better shape than Al Golden did, but wins against FAMU and Florida Atlantic won’t impress anyone. If the Hurricanes can stop the run, they should win this game but there are doubts there.
This is a tough call but if you’re going to take a side here, lay the points with the Hurricanes. 3.5 points is probably too few for Miami to give even if it is on the road and App State doesn’t have a quarterback that can keep the defense honest.
College Football Odds: Hurricanes 27, Mountaineers 17
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