The No. 12 Michigan State Spartans are used to being written off. Year after year, the experts underestimate Mark Dantonio and his Spartans and most of the time these experts are eating their words by the end of the season. Sparty will get the chance to again prove the doubters wrong if it gets through a tough four-game stretch starting this Saturday against the No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This is one of the best primetime games in Week 3 of college football.
This contest in Week 3 of the college football season will go down Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium. The game will be broadcast on NBC.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame -8
Michigan State +8
Over/Under 52.5
Odds Analysis
The Fighting Irish opened as a 7.5-point favorite and the early cash has come in on the Golden Domers. Notre Dame has won each of the last three games in this series, with the last meeting being back in 2013.
Player to Watch
That was a pretty short-lived quarterback battle. After DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire split snaps in the overtime loss to Texas, Brian Kelly tipped Kizer as the permanent starter due to his superior performance. If he would have started the full game against Texas, Notre Dame likely would have won, but instead Kelly was determined to get Zaire some time and that cost the Irish the game.
Kizer has been a joy to watch running Kelly’s offense. His mobility is a necessity as Kelly’s system doesn’t allow the quarterback to check to a hot read at the line of scrimmage and he is an accomplished passer as well. Kizer has seven touchdowns to just one interception and has also ran for two touchdowns on the ground through the first two games of the season.
He had no trouble beating Texas through the air, but Michigan State is known for its defense and will be a much bigger challenge. There’s a lot of talent in the Spartans’ secondary and they are usually great at getting quarterbacks to make mistakes.
Matchup to Watch
Michigan State has had some fantastic linebacker play during this decade, but struggled to meet the standard expected in East Lansing after injuries ravaged the unit. Losing Ed Davis for the entirety of last season was catastrophic to a defense that was expecting to rely on his leadership, but Dantonio hinted that Davis could be making his long awaited return against the Irish.
Having Davis back in the lineup would be huge for the Spartans. He was being compared favorably to some of the best linebackers in program history prior to tearing his ACL right before last season and Michigan State struggled to stop teams without him early on. If he can come back for this one and be paired alongside Riley Bullough, the Spartans have to be feeling good.
Free ATS Pick
The elephant in the room is whether or not Tyler O’Connor can lead Michigan State’s offense effectively. He started the Ohio State game last year after Connor Cook was hurt and although the Spartans got the upset, it wasn’t because of his play. O’Connor just seems to be lacking the same drive that defined Cook and that’s not good news for Sparty.
Michigan State’s only shot in this game is to slow the game down, and grind out a grueling 13-10 type victory. The Spartans had some issues moving the ball against Furman in their season opener, but the Irish defense is still plugging holes after some players were booted off the team right before the season kicked off.
If there’s a doubt, go with the quarterback and that means taking the Irish here. He’s proven to be a solid distributor and the Spartans just don’t have the firepower to keep up.
College Football Odds: Fighting Irish 34, Spartans 23
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