The Bulldogs are also 1-1 on the season and were stunned by South Alabama, 21-20, in their opener before rebounding with a win over South Carolina last time out. It was nice for Mississippi State to get back on track but this is a huge uptick in competition.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +14
LSU -14
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Tigers haven’t looked great early in the season, but they are still the popular choice to cover the spread. More than 64 percent of the early wagers are on LSU to cover. The Tigers are 0-2 against the spread early in the year.
The scoring total looks correct as 60 percent of the bets have come in on the “over,” but that number could drop as the betting intensifies throughout the week.
Injury Report
Leonard Fournette -- The LSU star running back hurt his ankle in the season-opening loss to Wisconsin and sat out last week’s win. Coach Les Miles said Fournette should be ready to go for this showdown. He is one of the most outstanding skill players in the country and can make a huge difference by himself. If Fournette is limited or suffers a setback, it could certainly change the complexion of the game and make Mississippi State more likely to cover.
Matchup to Watch
LSU passing game vs. Mississippi State secondary: The Bulldogs lost expected starting cornerbacks Tolando Cleveland (ACL) and Cedric Jiles (broken arm) for an extensive amount of time early in the season, but the secondary has held up pretty well.
Mississippi State has given up only 17.5 points per game on the season and 247 pass yards per contest. It has been the offense which has struggled and held the Bulldogs back.
LSU is built on its running game but must be able to move the ball through the air. Quarterbacks Brandon Harris and Danny Etling have split time thus far but neither has been great.
Harris has completed 13-of-25 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions while Etling is 6-of-14 for 100 yards with a touchdown. Mississippi State could be vulnerable in the passing game, but neither signal-caller has shown it can adequately take advantage.
Free ATS Pick
The Tigers will try to ride their solid ground attack behind Fournette and Derrius Guice, who have accumulated nearly 300 yards on the ground over the first two games. Guice is averaging 7.5 yards a carry while Fournette is averaging six yards a carry.
Mississippi State has a dual threat quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald who they may employ to try to keep the strong LSU defense off-balance. The Tigers have the more impressive personnel, so gadget plays or other misdirection could be needed to consistently score points for Mississippi State.
LSU was a top-5 team to start the season but has not lived up to that billing thus far. This is a game it has the potential to dominate at home against an inferior opponent, but the offensive issues could keep it closer than LSU prefers.
The Bulldogs should be able to get a late score to cover the spread, although it would be a shock if LSU doesn’t capture the win in this game.
NCAA Football Odds: LSU 27, Mississippi State 16
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