Fans of the Nebraska Cornhuskers will hope the ghosts of Mike Riley’s past didn’t follow him to Lincoln after the Oregon Ducks routinely beat his Beavers into submission just about every passing season he held the head coaching position in Corvallis. He dropped seven straight to the Ducks before bolting for the land of corn, and will now get a shot at wiping the slate clean in leading his new team to a huge Week 3 win.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon +3.5
Nebraska -3.5
Over/Under 73
Odds Analysis
There was early buyback on the Ducks after the Cornhuskers opened up as 3 point home favorites, but it was short lived. The betting line bounced back between -3 and -2.5 before jumping back to -3 with -115 juice supporting Nebraska. The line then jumped to -3.5 -110 before falling to -105. When you pair Riley’s lack of success against Oregon with the Ducks being about as public a team as there in in the country, it’s likely this line heads back to where it opened before kickoff.
The betting public is expecting this to be nothing short of a shootout. The total opened at 70.5 and immediately shot up to 72 and then 73 where it’s sat ever since. With the Ducks defense porous up front early as it adapts to a new system, and the Huskers averaging four takeaways per game, it’s possible this number isn’t finished soaring.
Matchup to Watch
The Huskers defense allowed its first two opponents to rush for an average of just 81 yards per game. Good for the nation’s No. 21 ranked rushing defense. That aspect of the stop unit must once again step up to the plate with a premiere ball carrier in the form of Royce Freeman invading Lincoln looking to build upon the 294 yards and 4 touchdowns he’s rushed for on just 32 carries. That’s a 9.2 yard per carry average!
If the Cornhuskers are to protect their house and cover this game for their wagering supporters, the Huskers must contain Freeman and force someone else to beat them.
Key Stats
Oregon is widely known for running a fast paced big play offensive scheme. When in a rhythm, it’s an absolute joy to watch. But when yellow flags routinely call big plays back, it gets in the way of the unit flowing like a well-oiled machine.
That’s been the story through the first two games with Oregon averaging 12 penalties per game. Should the rushing attack get bottled up, it will only make Big Red’s experienced secondary that much tougher to deal with. Playing carelessly would only make the job that much easier with the Ducks constantly being bogged down by down and distance. If that happens, Nebraska will have a much easier time of defending the Ducks not so finely tuned attack.
Free ATS Pick
Lincoln is going to be off the chain this weekend. This is a game Mike Riley and his staff has had circled ever since jumping ship to coach the Cornhuskers. I’m not sure Oregon is ready for a game like this with Nebraska the more experienced of the two teams playing in front of its rabid fan base. On top of that, the Blackshirt defense has flexed its muscles early with eight takeaways.
That spells trouble for Dakota Prukop who is yet to experience what he’s about to go through with 85K screaming fans in a sea of red. Nebraska has covered five of its last six non-conference tilts, while the Ducks have failed to cover the closing number in each of their last four out of conference battles. This is not the venue Oregon wants to visit with it still trying to find itself on both sides of the ball. Look for Riley to take the first of this home and home series with the Ducks to keep Big Red’s solid start to the season intact.
College Football Odds: Nebraska 37, Oregon 28
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