The Pittsburgh Panthers head into this Week 3 showdown in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys undefeated after a big win this weekend against Penn State while the Cowboys dropped their week 2 game against Central Michigan in a major upset.
While the Panthers have gotten off to a strong start, they’ve yet to beat the spread, winning the first by 21 with a 28-point spread and topping the Nittany Lions by three when they were the 3.5-point favorites. This will be the Panthers’ first road game and first game as the underdog. A big win here would put this team more on the map, but Pat Narduzzi’s team will be hard pressed to win given their struggles against the Penn State defense and the Sooner’s strong defensive line.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Boone Pickens Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh +6.5
Oklahoma State -6.5
Odds Analysis
The oddsmakers opened the books with the Cowboys as favorites by nearly a touchdown and the lines have stayed stagnant for now. While Pittsburgh is a scrappy team, Oklahoma State is able to do a few more things on the gridiron compared to the Panthers who can be a bit over reliant on its ground game.
This is the first ever meeting between these two schools who are also slated to meet again next year. Given there’s no history between these programs to bank on for trends, we have to take these rosters at face value.
Matchup to Watch
The Panthers rely heavily on their running game which came up big in Week 2 against Penn State, rushing for 341 yards and averaging over six yards per carry. Those are some pretty strong numbers.
Pittsburgh will need the running game to lead the way again for the team to find success on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is a strong rush defense and the battle between the Panthers’ rushing attack and the Cowboys’ rush defense is key to this game. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t great so you can look for Oklahoma State to be able to score, but can Pittsburgh keep pace without a strong passing attack? We’ll find out, but the Panthers may need to try and open up the field in the air considering Oklahoma State does struggle with the big passing play from time-to-time.
If Pittsburgh can get a couple key third down receptions, it could open things up inside for the rushing game. Nevertheless, the Panthers identity is on the ground and Oklahoma State has the personnel to stop up that attack.
Key Stat
The Panthers have captured their first two wins thanks in part to six forced turnovers by their defense. They’ve countered by allowed just three turnovers of their own, giving them a pretty strong differential through the season’s first two games.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys despite a disappointing loss on Saturday, have given up the ball just twice, once on a fumble and once on an interception. They’ve forced six turnovers of their own given them an even better differential here in the early going than the Panthers. In their last game, they were able to hold onto the ball and avoid the fumble, but didn’t have a whole lot of time to fumble, losing the time of possession battle by 10 minutes. The rushing attack was stifled, allowing fewer than two yards per carry.
If Pittsburgh’s defense is able to follow the same formula, they could find success, though the turnover has been a significant part of their game, helping to secure good field position and allowing the team to avoid turning to the passing game for big plays.
Free ATS Pick
The Panthers could make this a closer game than some may think given a strong offensive line that’s the heart of this team’s 2-0 start. The line opens things up for the rushing game, but can Pittsburgh’s running attack carry them when playing a versatile offense like Oklahoma State? Can they keep the game close enough or will they have to abandon the run as the game progresses?
Pittsburgh allowed the Nittany Lions to score 39 last week, allowing 332 yards in the air and while the rushing attack netted just 74-yards against them, they gave up four rushing touchdowns as they were unable to stop the run in the red zone.
Look for the Cowboys to get out in front early and carry the lead throughout the game. The Cowboys should be extra motivated following their Week 2 loss and will be out for blood. With Pittsburgh playing from behind and a strong run defense for Oklahoma State, that could force Pittsburgh out of its strengths and hand the team its first loss of the season.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma State 35, Pittsburgh 23
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