They’ll be hoping to carry that momentum over into Week 3 as they take on the Arkansas Razorbacks, but it will be interesting to see how much energy the Bobcats have left in the tank this week after such a down-to-the wire win. The Bobcats would need a big boost to pull off another upset this week, as Arkansas has the superior roster.
No. 24 Arkansas is fresh off a barn-burner of its own, defeating TCU in double-overtime last week to improve to 2-0 on the season and climb into the national rankings.
Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 4:30 p.m. ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas State +30.5
Arkansas -30.5
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
Texas State’s offense is good enough that most bettors are choosing them to cover. The spread has dropped by a half-point and the Bobcats are getting chosen to cover at a 71 percent clip.
The “under” is the more common choice, although it might not be the right call. This one could see its fair share of points as the Bobcats will aim to rally if they fall behind early.
Key Stat
Four. That’s the combined number of points Arkansas has won its first two games by. The Razorbacks knocked off Louisiana Tech, 21-20, in its opener before beating No. 15 TCU 41-38.
There was too much emphasis on last week’s win, because while it was impressive, it doesn’t change the fact that the first week was less-than-inspiring. Arkansas has been outgained by more than 80 yards per game thus far, which signifies it is lucky to still be undefeated.
The Razorbacks don’t have to worry about losing this one, but their jump onto the national radar seems a bit premature. The spread is also too favorable.
Player to Watch
Texas State has its work cut out for it this week, but at least the Bobcats have Tyler Jones. He showed tremendous poise and accuracy last week against Ohio, battling his way back from two early interceptions to end the game 40-of-55 for 418 yards and four passing touchdowns. He also added a touchdown on the ground.
The senior quarterback faces much tougher defense in the Bulldogs this week, of course, but having an experienced and proven threat under center is certainly a plus. The Bobcats are at a severe talent disadvantage and have little chance of pulling the upset, but a solid signal-caller is a big-time advantage when it comes to covering the spread.
Free ATS Pick
Arkansas picked up a good win against TCU but still has its fair share of question marks. The defense has done pretty well, especially when it shut out the Horned Frogs in the first half, but it won’t be a walk in the park against Jones.
Texas State is a small program which will always be facing an uphill battle in games like this. However, the Bobcats are good enough to stick around for a little while early on.
It won’t result in a victory, but it could mean the difference in a cover as the Razorbacks inevitably pull away. Also look for that late touchdown which could push this game into “over” territory, which will simultaneously thrill and deflate gamblers who wagered on the total.
Arkansas may be nationally ranked, but it hasn’t quite shown it deserves to be there, and this one won’t be the most inspiring win.
NCAA Football Odds: Arkansas 41, Texas State 20
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