The surprising No. 11 Texas Longhorns will hit the road for the first time this season to play the back end of a home and home series with the California Golden Bears looking to avenge a crazy 45-44 defeat to them last season. This matchup is the owner of the highest total on the Week 3 board, and with both defenses susceptible to each offenses strengths, a boatload of points should hit the Memorial Stadium scoreboard late Saturday night.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
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Texas -8
California +8
Over/Under 79
Odds Analysis
The Longhorns went off the board as 3.5 point home underdogs to Notre Dame opening Week. They won that game in overtime and then smashed overmatched UTEP 41-7 last week. With Charlie Strong’s kids 2-0 both SU & ATS, linemakers tabbed them 6.5 point chalk in their first game to be played away from Austin. The betting public immediately bet it up to -7.5 and then to -8 where it currently sits. Anyone that watched Cal battle back from a pair of double digit deficits and have a shot at winning the game at San Diego State last week knows this team is never out of it until the final gun.
Over bettors came in fast and furious once the total was released at 72 betting it up to 76.5, 77 and 79 where it currently resides. Each of these offenses have been electric through the first two weeks, so it’s possible this number isn’t done climbing.
Injury Report
D’Onta Foreman – The Longhorns racked up 237 total yards on the ground against the Irish with Foreman accounting for 131 of them. He was forced to sit out last week with a groin injury, and his status for this week’s game remains uncertain. If unable to go, it would remove a necessary ingredient that Texas would need to take advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the country that’s allowed an average of 291 yards per game (No. 125) at 6.8 yards per carry (No. 122).
Matchup to Watch
Davis Webb checks in as the country’s No. 2 ranked passing quarterback. He averages over 481 yards per game and sits only behind Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes II. Each has been forced to sling the pigskin all over the field due to the fact that their defenses have shown absolutely no ability to prevent opposing offenses from putting points on the board in bunches.
Cal has struggled to run the football, so it will be up to Davis to keep his squad in the game by attacking a Texas defense that’s been better defending the pass (No. 27 at 155.5 yards per game) than the run (No. 88 at 170.5 yards per game). That said, the Horns are yet to run up against a pure passer like Davis who has the weapons to keep Texas’s defense reeling all night.
Free ATS Pick
Last year’s showdown in Austin was insane. The game went into the break tied at 24, but then Cal rattled off three straight scores to take what was first thought of as a commanding lead. That didn’t turn out to be the case with Texas storming all the way back to pull within 45-44, but the extra point was blocked allowing the Golden Bears to escape with the one point win.
The drama was thick that night and it’s entirely possible the second chapter lives up to the first. The first team that hits the 40 point plateau in this one should ultimately win, but I don’t foresee either side running away with it with each offense having the goods to take advantage of a pair of susceptible defenses.
College Football Odds: Texas 49, Cal 42
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