After splitting a pair of close hard fought games at Arizona and Utah, the BYU Cougars return to Provo for their home opener against Josh Rosen and the UCLA Bruins who will be out to snag their first road win of 2016. These clubs played to a thrilling 24-23 final in the Rose Bowl last season, and another hard fought back and forth affair is expected in Week 3.
Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 17, 2016, at 10:15 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UCLA -3.5
BYU +3.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Linemakers tabbed the home based Cougars the decided underdog for this matchup installing them 4 point pups at the open. With this being BYU’s home opener, the betting public gladly took the extra cheddar moving the visiting Bruins to 3 point favorites almost immediately. Since then, the line bumped back up to -3.5 but it wouldn’t surprise if it fell back down to -3 at kick-off.
Even though BYU has a pair of stud defenders suspended for the first half of this game, the total was bet down to a flat 49 after opening at 49.5. This matchup played 10 points below its posted total last season mostly due to Rosen having one of the worst games of his freshman campaign in throwing for just 106 yards and getting picked off three times. I expect some adjustments to be made this time around, so total bettors are working with some line value.
Player to Watch
It’s been the Taysom Hill show for the Cougars the first couple weeks of the season. The success of BYU’s offense has been predicated solely on his ability to beat opposing defenses with his legs evidenced by him rushing for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns at 5.2 yards per carry while averaging just 5.6 yards per pass with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions.
UCLA’s defense is middle of the road when it comes to defensive yards per point (14.8), and has been much better defending the pass (No. 55) than the run in allowing 189 yards per game (No. 99) at 5.0 yards per carry (No. 91). BYU’s success or lack thereof will ultimately be decided with Hill’s ability to lead the offense against a banged up Bruins defense. If he doesn’t succeed, BYU simply won’t have enough gas in the tank to keep up after partaking in a pair of grinding games to open the year.
Matchup to Watch
The Cougars have been nothing short of average in defending the run in allowing 142 yards per game (No. 70) at 4.2 yards per carry (No. 68). Arizona’s Nick Wilson ripped BYU’s defense apart for 138 yards and a couple scores on just 17 carries in Week 1.
For Josh Rosen to bounce back from last year’s horrific 3 interception effort against BYU, Soso Jamabo must give him some breathing room to work in the pocket. Rosen is deadly when he can sit back, scan the field, and let her fly. When under constant duress, he’s erratic and more prone to turnovers. Jamabo’s ability to make BYU respect the ground game will go a long way in allowing Rosen to have a much better showing against the Cougars this time around.
Free ATS Pick
Laying any type of points against the Cougars has proved to be a losing proposition through the first two weeks of the season. Now they’re getting over a field goal at home against a third straight Pac-12 opponent and just over 53 percent of the betting public is riding the visitors.
Not sure I’m buying into that with the Bruins having defensive linemen Takkarist McKinley and Eddie Vanderdoes listed as questionable. If neither is able to play, it will make an already porous Bruins run defense that much more susceptible to Hill and Jamal Williams. If the Cougars can keep it close in the first half with a couple defensemen serving suspensions, I give them a heck of a shot of pulling this one out.
BYU has won outright each of the last three times it went off the board home dogs of 3.5 points or less, and I expect this game to play out like the first two and once again go right down to the wire.
College Football Odds: BYU 28, UCLA 27
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