Two of the better teams in the Mountain West will look to start conference play on a winning note when the Air Force Falcons travel west to face the Utah State Aggies in a late Saturday night game. Air Force has been flying high to start the season, cruising to easy wins against Abilene Christian and Georgia State, while Utah State has only fallen to USC up to this point. These teams are both unheralded, but legitimate contenders for the Mountain West crown and whoever wins this matchup will put themselves in good shape.
Kickoff for this Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 10:15 p.m. ET at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. This showdown will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Utah State +3.5
Air Force -3.5
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
Air Force opened up as a field goal favorite and the line has shifted to include the hook if you want to bet on the Falcons. Utah State has covered both games it was a favorite in but didn’t come close to covering the spread against USC, while Air Force is 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS on the season.
Matchup to Watch
It’s going to be strength against strength when Air Force tries to run the ball against Utah State’s stout defense. Like the other service academies, the Falcons run, run, and run some more and only pass once in a blue moon. Of Air Force’s 172 offensive plays this season, only 20 of those were passes and only 45 percent of those were completed.
The Falcons have been able to move the ball against their foes this way and haven’t needed to throw the ball yet. They are averaging 5.69 yards a carry on the ground and scoring 42.5 points per game thus far. However, Air Force will face its first real defense when it takes on Utah State.
The Aggies have a great run defense, giving up just a hair over 3 yards a carry through their first 3 games. Those games weren’t against nobodies either as the Aggies stifled both USC and perennial Sun Belt contender Arkansas State. That’s been a big surprise and bodes well for Utah State for the rest of the season as the defense only returned three starters from 2015.
Last Year’s Meeting
That defense will need to be better than it was when Utah State traveled to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force last year. The Falcons were able to churn out 4.8 yards per carry on the ground and also had a relative field day passing.
Karson Roberts threw for 271 yards on just 17 pass attempts as Air Force just outmuscled Utah State’s defensive backs. The Aggies couldn’t match the physical style of play from Jalen Robinette, who caught seven passes for 210 yards and a touchdown.
Robinette is back this season and is still a match-up nightmare for the Aggies. However, new quarterback Nate Romine is still relatively untested at this point and it will be worth watching to see how he performs.
Free ATS Pick
Kent Myers came up big for Utah State against Air Force last season after the ground game was repeatedly stifled, but Air Force’s secondary is one of the more veteran units this season. All four starters are seniors and all of them were starters last season. In addition to that, both Roland Ladipo and Weston Steelhammer were First Team All-MWC picks last season and Myers will struggle to have the same success he did against this unit in 2015.
Although the home team has fared better historically in this series, Air Force is favored for a reason. As long as Romine is competent, Air Force should be able to move the ball better than its counterpart and cover the spread.
College Football Odds: Falcons 33, Aggies 24
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
