A big one is set to go down in the SEC West late Saturday evening when a pair of 3-0 teams in the Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas AM Aggies throw down in Jerry’s World for the rights of playing second fiddle to Alabama within the division. These squads played to an overtime thriller in Fayetteville last season that saw the Aggies run their win streak to four straight in the recent series, so another doozy is likely in store Week 4.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas +6
Texas AM -6
Odds Analysis
After going into Auburn last weekend and coming out undefeated, the betting public pounced on the Aggies at the open. Kevin Sumlin’s squad were deemed 2.5 points better, but it quickly jumped to -3.5, then -4, -5.5 and -6. Texas AM has been impressive over the course of its first three games with its ability to get after the quarterback and not give up points defensively, and run an efficient offense both on the ground and through the air.
The Aggies have also played the tougher schedule thus far having already toppled UCLA in overtime in a game they likely should have won in regulation, and then last week at Auburn. This line could reach -7 at some point, but considering each of the last two meetings between these teams was separated by only a touchdown, I don’t foresee it going any higher. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it come down a bit.
Revenge Angle
Brett Bielema’s squad let one get away from them last season in this exact same venue. The Hogs snagged leads of 7-0, and 21-13 late into the 4th quarter before allowing the tying score and eventually falling in overtime 28-21. It was déjà vu all over again with pretty much the exact same outcome playing out the previous season, only that time, Arkansas dropped a 35-28 decision in overtime.
The two defeats sting no doubt, but Arkansas will also enter this contest looking to put an end to their four game losing streak in the recent series. In order to do that, the offense will have to deal with a John Chavis coached defense firing on all cylinders led by the unstoppable motor that is Myles Garrett.
Key Stats
Each of these teams gets after opposing quarterbacks. Arkansas averages 3.3 sacks per game while Texas AM averages 3.5. With each field general expected to be in the line of fire, it will be up to the hogs up front to keep the big nasties off the most important component of their respective attacks.
Through three games, the Aggies offensive line has conceded an average of just a half a sack per game. On the flipside, the Razorbacks have allowed opposing defenders to drop Austin Allen to the turf two times per game. That could prove to be problematic for the Hogs with Texas AM possessing two of the finest pass rushing defensive end duos in the country in Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The ability to keep those two behemoths off their quarterback will go a long way towards keeping Arkansas in this one all the way through.
Free ATS Pick
Even though this game takes place at a neutral venue, it’s been pro AM the last couple seasons with it nothing more than a quick road trip away from College Station. That’s just one of the advantages the Aggies have going into this matchup. The other is a much more balanced offense that should be able to get the better of a mediocre Arkansas defense that up until last week had issues getting off the field on 3rd down.
Freshman Trayveon Williams has given the Aggies ground attack a major boost, while Trevor Knight has been a solid game manager doing just enough to lead his team to victory. The Aggies and their 21.7 yard per point defense will be the toughest Arkansas will have seen to date, and I don’t believe they’re ready to take on a challenge of this magnitude just yet.
College Football Odds: Texas AM 34, Arkansas 20
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