After a disastrous first season in Corvallis, Gary Anderson is trying to right the ship with the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers won their first game in nearly a full calendar year last week against Idaho State, but now have to face the champions of the state of Idaho when the Boise State Broncos come to town. This College Football Week 4 matchup will be a crucial test for Anderson’s team to see just how far they have come.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Reser Stadium. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon State +13
Boise State -13
Odds Analysis
Boise State has been an awesome team in non-conference play since it rose to prominence. The Broncos are an impressive 31-18 ATS against non-conference opponents over the past decade and many of those doubled as outright wins against favored opponents from power conferences.
The Beavers haven’t been nearly as good outside of their conference, going 3-7 ATS versus teams outside the PAC-12 over the past three seasons.
The under has been a solid bet for both these teams this season as each side has played both of their games to date under the total.
Player to Watch
Many expected Brett Rypien to shine this season after a promising freshman campaign, but thus far he is off to a slow start. Rypien torched Louisiana-Lafayette to kick off the year, but really struggled against a less than stellar Washington State team two weeks ago. He threw three interceptions in the game which led to 14 Cougars’ points and two of them were extremely costly as the Broncos were just trying to salt the game away late in the fourth.
Rypien’s last two interceptions came in the final five minutes of action and led to the Broncos almost losing a game that they were leading the whole way. The three interception game was an even bigger surprise, since Rypien is typically seen as being careful with the ball, throwing just eight picks in 430 passes last year. His interceptions seem to come in bunches though and it will be interesting to see how he bounces back this week.
Key Stat
After Boise State’s defensive coordinator left to take the same position with Arizona, there were plenty of skeptics when it was announced that former Boise State LB Andy Avalos would be filling the role. Avalos had only been a position coach before his promotion and there was concern about how he would perform calling the shots.
Through two games, that skepticism looks to be unwarranted. The Broncos have the fifth-best run defense in the country, allowing just 60.5 yards per game and 2.02 yards per carry on the season. Oregon State doesn’t have a good running game as it is, averaging just 3.28 yards on the ground outside of a 92-yard run on a jetsweep from WR Victor Bolden Jr. That should make the Beavers completely one-dimensional against the Broncos defense.
Free ATS Pick
Oregon State is going to be a better team this season. Anderson is a solid coach and needed some time to put things together at Utah State before winning and should be given the benefit of the doubt. This is likely to be another long season for the Beavers though as Anderson gets his players in the system.
The Broncos are just too strong for the Beavers here. If not for the turnovers last week, Boise would have beaten Wazzou by double-digits and the Cougars are a much better team than the Beavers are at this point. Provided that Rypien makes good decisions and doesn’t throw interceptions, Boise State is going to waltz to an easy win.
College Football Odds: Broncos 35, Beavers 17
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