Texas-San Antonio fought the Arizona State Sun Devils hard, but ultimately Arizona State pulled the game out in the fourth quarter. Still, that was a game the Sun Devils were supposed to win by a considerable margin. They’ll now head back home to open up the Pac-12 portion of their schedule in Week 4 against the California Golden Bears. California got the win over the Sun Devils last season in a shootout and will be on the hunt for their second straight upset after toppling Texas in Week 3.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 10 p.m. ET at Frank Kush Field at Sun Devil Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
California +3.5
Arizona State -3.5
Odds Analysis
The odds opened with the Sun Devils favored by a field goal, but has expanded a little since opening. The odds-makers were a bit skittish on the Sun Devils after their scare in Week 3 and impressed with California’s showing against Texas. Bettors aren’t quite convinced, yet.
In Week 2 we saw Arizona State pull the upset over Texas Tech and then go a bit cold in Week 3, the same could happen to California this time around, except the Golden Bears have a much more challenging matchup.
As for the Over/Under, both these teams have shown that the offense has been the story over the defense with over paying out in five of the six combined games these teams have played this year. Keep an eye towards the total when released and look for it to reflect the gun slinger mentality we’ve seen to date.
Key Stats
Unlike the pass heavy California offense, the Arizona State offense is much more balanced which makes it difficult to defend, particularly on third down with the Sun Devils offering enough in both the running game and air attack to convert along with the best of them.
Through the first three games, the Sun Devils have found themselves in third down situations 45 times, converting on 24 of them. That’s good for a .533 percentage, ranking them No. 13 in the sport.
Meanwhile, the Golden Bears’ defense has been unable to draw the line in the sand and force the three and out. In just three games, the opposition has converted on 22 third down chances, forcing fourth down just over half of the time.
There’s no doubt that the Golden Bears’ chances lay squarely on the shoulders—or rather the arm—of Davis Webb, but he needs some help on the other side of the field a few big stop on third down early could help set the tone. California will be passing regardless of the score, but having if this team is forced to play catchup early that could open the flood gates for a few more mistakes as the game speeds up.
Matchup to Watch
Look to the skies. While Jared Goff has departed, California remains a prolific passing team behind Webb who has already thrown for 1,359 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Golden Bears throw early and often.
California was able to get the win over the Sun Devils last year thanks to that high speed passing game when Goff tossed 542 yards and five scores. It would be ridiculous to expect the same type of performance again.
Keeping the Bears at check in the passing game will be crucial. California doesn’t have the type of running game to match. Arizona State’s front has also limited the opposition to only 73.7 yards per game on the ground. In the air, Arizona State showed its vulnerability against Texas Tech in Week 2. The Red Raiders threw for 540 yards and five touchdowns.
With likely limited pressure, Webb should have plenty of time to allow him to avoid any key mistakes and find his crop of receivers which has included Chad Hansen who’s having a great start to the year.
We should see another high scoring game Saturday as the Sun Devils bring balanced offense averaging 48 PPG to the table against a porous California defense unable to contain Hawaii, San Diego State or Texas.
Free ATS Pick
Look for the lead to change hands a few times, but the Sun Devils should outlast the Bears at home. Arizona State got their scare last week and I look for that to be a nice jolt of motivation more than a telltale of things to come.
For those looking to play on player props, Webb and Kalen Ballage could be in line for big games for their respective teams.
Arizona State is at home, looking to make a name for itself after a poor season and has plenty of motivation given the results of their last meeting with the Bears. The Sun Devils eek out the victory thanks to a late touchdown and do just enough to cover the spread in this offensive showdown.
College Football Odds: Arizona State 42, California 37
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
