The Oregon Ducks return home for Week 4 to host the Colorado Buffaloes, each team hoping to rebound off their first loss of the season. Historically, this has been a matchup owned by the Ducks, winning 12 of 20 contests. Oregon has beaten the Buffaloes in six straight meetings, including going into Boulder last year and trouncing them by 17-points. Colorado will go for the upset looking to put an end to that streak, while the Ducks are in position to extend it.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium.
Odds Analysis
The odds are still in flux right now with injury uncertainty on both sidelines. Keep a close eye on injury statuses as this line has a chance to move fast once injury reports are released. Be sure to be ahead of the game and jump on the favorable spreads.
Both Colorado and Oregon lost their latest game SU, but Buffaloes were at least able to salvage a win ATS for its bettors. The team has now won all three ATS this while the Ducks are now 0-2-1 ATS.
Injury Report
In Week 3, the Ducks still scored 32-points, but lost as Royce Freeman left the game after just five carries. He had two touchdowns a piece in the first two games, combining for 294 yards on 32 carries.
In Freeman’s absence, Dakota Prukop did most of the running himself, turning to Kani Benoit, Taj Griffin and Tony Brooks-James from time-to-time. They all delivered, with five combined touchdowns, but that wasn’t quite enough. Freeman’s health will be worth watching heading into the game. After all, he is a fringe Heisman candidate.
Freeman quietly amassed 1,838 yards last year. He just lacked the national spotlight as the Ducks took a step back without Marcus Mariota.
The extent of the injury hasn’t been disclosed, but Freeman was icing the knee later in the game. If he’s out next week, that’s certainly a major blow to a team reliant on its offense and focused on the rush, but the team carried on without him last week. Wide receiver Devon Allen also came out of the game with an apparent knee injury. His status is also up in the air as the Olympic hurdler typically provides a deep threat for Prukop.
Another player that’s a question at this point is Sefo Liufau. Unlike the rushing attack of Oregon without Freeman, the Colorado offense stalled without Liufau. The Buffaloes jumped out with 21-points in the first quarter and added just one more touchdown after that.
Matchup to Watch
The Ducks ran all over the Buffaloes a season ago, averaging six yards a carry and rushing for three scores. Colorado, meanwhile, actually out threw Oregon, but the Ducks still ended the day with 129 more yards and a 41-24 victory, taking advantage of a number of Buffalo turnovers.
Early on the Colorado defense looks much improved, though some of that is a result of the opposition. We saw the holes in the defense appear against Michigan. Nevertheless, the Buffaloes still rank No. 4 in the NFL with 239.3 total yards allowed per game.
Buffalo will have to do it’s best to slow the Oregon offense which will be tough. This running game is deep with talent and the playbook accommodates the skillset of this group of talent athletes in the skilled positions.
Colorado needs to jump out early on the offensive end and force the Ducks into the air as much as possible. The team is talented there, too, but if Oregon is able to get in a groove, grab an early lead and lean on its running attack, this game could be over quickly.
Free ATS Pick
With or without Freeman and Allen, this Oregon offense is good enough to score against the Colorado defense, but the health of these two players should have a major impact on the spread. Colorado doesn’t have the depth to overcome the Liufau injury, another injury with a major impact on the spread. We should get a clearer picture on all three injuries as the week progresses.
Even without Freeman, the rushing game still looked alive and well in the loss to Nebraska. After looking strong defensively against weaker opponents, the Colorado defensive unit allowed 45-points to Michigan including three rushing touchdowns.
Regardless of the injury status on Oregon’s end, look for the Ducks to lean on their offense to overtake the Buffaloes, but if Liufau is healthy, Colorado is good enough to keep the game close. If he’s out, so are the Buffaloes.
College Football Odds: Oregon 35, Colorado 28
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