The Minnesota Golden Gophers are looking to go through their non-conference schedule undefeated before entering the grind that is Big Ten play and the Colorado State Rams are standing in their way. This Week 4 college football game will be important for both teams as they hope to enter their conference schedules on a winning note and get to half the wins needed to get to the college football postseason, provided the NCAA doesn’t take five-win teams again in 2016.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at TCF Bank Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota -14.5
Colorado State +14.5
Odds Analysis
The Golden Gophers are over two-touchdown favorites in this one, despite how close the Rams played them in 2015. On the season, Colorado State is 2-1 ATS and all three of their games have gone under the total, while Minnesota is 1-1 both ATS and against the total.
Player to Watch
There’s already talk about Mitch Leidner being the first Big Ten quarterback selected in the First Round of the NFL Draft since Kerry Collins back in 1995. Although he doesn’t air it out like quarterbacks at other schools, he is an effective game manager and has the prototypical size and arm strength that NFL scouts drool over.
Leidner was surprisingly inefficient against Oregon State in the first week of the season, but that may have just been rust. He torched FCS Indiana State for four touchdowns in his second game and looked to again be the quarterback that almost led the Gophers to upsets of Michigan and Iowa in 2015. He has the opportunity to have a field day against a Rams defense that was torched by Colorado in Week 1 and needs to make the most of it.
Last Meeting
These teams played last year in Fort Collins in what was a back and forth affair throughout. The Rams played the Gophers pretty evenly, but turnovers proved to be their undoing in the end. Colorado State turned the ball over four times on the night, but the one that put the nail in the coffin was a fumble on its first possession in overtime. Minnesota immediately kicked a field goal afterwards and avoided the upset, but Colorado State was in there the whole way.
Leidner didn’t have a great game against the Rams last season and that kept Colorado State in it despite the turnovers. He completed just a hair over 50 percent of his passes and his 5.2 yards per attempt meant there weren’t a lot of big plays. For Minnesota to cover a spread this big, it needs Leidner to put up better numbers.
Free ATS Pick
Tracy Claeys took over for Jerry Kill midway through last season and the jury is still out on whether or not he’s the solution long term. Claeys has the same philosophy as Kill and wants to control the ball and grind out wins, but has made some questionable decisions since taking over the job. Winning games like this is essential to staying and Claeys certainly knows that.
Mike Bobo is still struggling to find a quarterback he trusts and will likely start true freshman Collin Hill against Minnesota on Saturday. Hill was solid in an easy win over FCS Northern Colorado, but didn’t look good in the little action he saw against UTSA. Faton Bauta and Nick Stevens have also proven to be unreliable, so if Hill can’t get it done it’s hard to see the Rams staying within the number.
This is a tough spot for Hill and the Rams. Colorado State won’t be able to run the ball well against Minnesota’s front and it will be up to whoever is taking snaps to soften up the defense. It’s hard to imagine that he’ll do much in this situation, but Minnesota’s secondary has given up big plays and he has a shot.
College Football Odds: Golden Gophers 38, Rams 17
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