It’s been a tough start to the 2016 for Notre Dame, facing two fellow Top 25 teams in the first three games so a win this week at home against Duke will be essential.
Duke is also 1-2 on the year so far and has lost two in a row coming into this one including a 24-13 loss to Northwestern last week. An upset here would be huge but it seems unlikely.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Duke +20.5
Notre Dame -20.5
Over/Under 58.5
Odds Analysis
Despite Notre Dame’s early-season struggles, the bettors don’t think much of Duke. More than 65 percent of the money is coming in on the Fighting Irish to cover.
This one could see plenty of scoring as the total is pretty high and more than 85 percent of the early wagers are taking the “over.”
Matchup to Watch
Duke ground game vs. Notre Dame defense -- Duke runs a pass-heavy offense behind Jones, but because the Fighting Irish front seven has been a weak spot this year, the Blue Devils could run the ball more this week.
Jones has shown some mobility with his three rushing touchdowns and Jela Duncan is Duke’s leading rusher. He has 193 yards and three touchdowns on the season. When spreads approach three touchdowns, any edge for the underdog could lead to an easy cover.
If the Blue Devils get something going on the ground, it should help them remain competitive and reward those who chose them on the spread.
Player to Watch
Freshman quarterback Daniel Jones has played OK through three games for Duke, but he’s never played anywhere like Notre Dame Stadium. With a capacity of more than 80,000 fans, this stadium and this game will no doubt be the biggest and loudest test yet for the young quarterback.
Jones is 68-of-111 for 800 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions so far this year. He has also added three touchdowns on the ground. But despite his production, Jones struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities last week against Northwestern which was problematic.
He will need to do a better job at executing, especially inside the red zone, if Duke wants a chance at the upset this week. Jones has also struggled with turnovers this season, losing three fumbles in addition to his two interceptions in five games.
How he fares on the big stage will surely determine how well Duke does against the Fighting Irish this week.
Free ATS Pick
The Notre Dame defense hasn’t been too impressive so far, allowing 50 points in the double-overtime loss to Texas in the season opener and 36 in last week’s loss to Michigan State. Aside from the aforementioned issues up front, the Irish also struggled against the pass last week. The defense allowed 501 total yards.
On the flip side, DeShone Kizer was fantastic. The junior threw for a career-high 344 yards and played a role in every single touchdown, throwing four two and also scoring twice on the ground. Kizer has thrown for 715 yards so far this season with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.
In the end, Kizer’s too good for Duke to slow him down. The Fighting Irish shouldn’t have any trouble scoring points and capturing this win, but the Blue Devils will respond enough to cover the spread. The scoring total is a bit too high despite the expected fireworks, so grab the “under” to cash in.
NCAA Football Odds: Notre Dame 37, Duke 20
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