The Tennessee Volunteers will look to end their recent misery against the Florida Gators when the teams meet in Week 4 action on Saturday in a matchup of Top 20 teams on CBS. The Gators have won the last 11 games against the Volunteers including 28-27 at home last season. The last win for Tennessee in this series was in 2004 when the Vols won 30-28. Oddsmakers like the chances for Tennessee to break the losing streak on Saturday as the Volunteers are listed as a 7-point favorite.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida +7
Tennessee -7
Odds Analysis
The No. 14 ranked Volunteers opened as 8-point favorites in this contest but the line has steadily moved down with Tennessee now a 7-point favorite. The line move is not a huge surprise as the Volunteers have not looked good in any of their three games even though Tennessee is 3-0.
The No. 19 ranked Gators have looked really good scoring almost 34 points per game and allowing just about 5 points per game. The Gators haven’t played anyone but they still feature a defense that is ranked first in the country. Florida will be starting a backup quarterback on Saturday but the wiseguys still have been betting the Gators. It seems unlikely that this line will drop any further as it has settled on 7.
Player to Watch
The attention on Saturday will be on Florida backup quarterback Austin Appelby. Starting quarterback Luke Del Rio was injured in last week’s win over North Texas and he will not play on Saturday.
Appleby is a fifth-year senior who has a lot of experience so he will not be in over his head as the starter. "I've played in the big stadiums before,” he said. “It's not gonna be anything new for me." Appelby was the starting quarterback at Purdue in 2014 and part of 2015 but he transferred to Florida for this season. He didn’t play that well with Purdue in road games throwing 7 TDs and 11 interceptions.
Appleby will have a much better team behind him than he did at Purdue. The Gators boast the top-ranked defense in the country allowing just 4.7 points per game. Appleby will need to avoid making mistakes and his offensive line will need to protect him. Appleby has more mobility than Del Rio so his running could be a factor on Saturday. Appleby sure doesn’t lack confidence heading into this big game against the Vols.
“You don't ever want to be somebody's caddie,” he said. “You want the ball in your hands.”
Key Stat
We know the Gators have simply owned this series of late taking the last 11 meetings and other stats also favor Florida. The Gators are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at Tennessee and the Gators are 9-1 ATS in their last ten road games. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last ten conference games.
This could be a low scoring game given the great Gators defense and five of the last seven Florida road games have gone under the total.
Free ATS Pick
The Volunteers are definitely overdue to finally beat the Gators but how much confidence can you have in a team coached by Butch Jones? And are you willing to lay points with a team that has Joshua Dobbs at quarterback?
There are some concerns with Florida with Appleby at quarterback but it is not like the Gators were winning based on what Del Rio was doing. Florida wins by running the ball, avoiding mistakes and playing great defense.
I will take the points with the Gators in a game that I think they can win outright. I will also play the game under the total.
College Football Odds: Gators 20 Volunteers 17
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