It’s been a magical year so far for the Houston Cougars. An early season upset of Oklahoma combined with a meteoric rise to the No. 6 spot in the AP poll has given the Cougars the best shot so far of any mid-major team to make the College Football Playoff. However, Houston can’t afford to slip up somewhere along the way and must stay focused throughout the season. In College Football Week 4, they will travel to San Marcos to take on the Texas State Bobcats.
This matchup in Week 4 will take place on Saturday, September 24, 2016 with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas State +34.5
Houston -34.5
Odds Analysis
Houston opened as one of the biggest road favorites of any team yet this season and with good reason. The Bobcats were pummeled against the Top 25 team they faced last week and now face their toughest test of the season.
The Cougars are 3-0 overall, 2-1 ATS, and have played all three of their games under the total this season, while the Bobcats are a straight 1-1 across the board in all of those categories.
Player to Watch
The big question to consider heading into this one is the health of Houston’s star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Ward sat out the win against Lamar after starring against Oklahoma in the opening week of the season and there have been major questions about his shoulder ever since.
Last week against Cincinnati, it was clear that his shoulder wasn’t at full strength and he struggled with throws that he was making with ease in his prior performance. In the end, his numbers weren’t bad, but the two interceptions he threw almost proved costly.
The good news for Ward is that when he struggles to throw the ball, he still has the mobility to make things happen with his legs and he is one of the best running quarterbacks in all of college football. Only Lamar Jackson might have a better combination of moves and straight-line speed in the game right now.
Whether or not he plays is the big question heading into this one, as Tom Herman might choose to rest his star quarterback before AAC starts just five days later with a game against the only team that beat Houston in 2015, the Connecticut Huskies.
Matchup to Watch
It’s tough to see a way that Texas State is able to move the ball on Houston’s defense. The Bobcats only managed 105 yards of offense and eight first downs against the Razorbacks last week, and the Cougars defense might be better.
Texas State has been one of the worst rushing teams at this early juncture of the season. The Bobcats’ 1.88 yards per carry is one of the worst numbers in the country and that unit will find it extremely tough sledding to run the ball on a Cougars defense allowing 1.46 yards per carry through its first three games.
Free ATS Pick
It is pretty obvious who will win the battle of the big cats of Texas, but who will cover is a bit trickier to figure out. It seems likely that Ward will sit or be very limited in this one and back-up Kyle Postma didn’t have an inspiring start playing in Ward’s absence.
Even with a back-up quarterback, most times you would take a mid-major team in this situation just because that team needs to make statements and blow teams out throughout the season. That isn’t the case with Houston though as its strength of schedule means that it will be able to get to the promised land as long as it goes undefeated.
A five-touchdown spread is just too much in this instance, especially for a home team. Grab Texas State and the points and hope for a subdued Houston performance.
College Football Odds: Cougars 41, Bobcats 13
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